2006-2007 Annual Abla Report

8th Annual Abla Report
The 2006-2007 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after non-conference game against Wisconsin-Milwaukee on November 15, 2006.
By Tim Abla

1 Jerret Smith (So.)
nothing flashy, just steady…a sophomore now, which to me is the pivotal year — you can establish yourself as a dependable part of the rotation or just fade into the background…needs to establish himself as the backup point guard that can be counted on for 15 minutes a game…yet another lefty (YAL)…doesn’t look to get to the basket much, but when he does he usually gets off a good shot…doesn’t get to the line much for a point guard…morphing into Tony Parker’s little brother (in looks, not skill)…does he have the speed necessary for playing point in the Big Ten?…solid bulk for a PG…5-6 points a game tops…definitely looks to set up others first

3 K’Len Morris (Fr.)
did not play (DNP)…will try to add some comments once I see him play…might be YAL

4 DeShawn Sims (Fr.)
listed as 6’8″ but I can’t imagine he’s any more than 6’6″ or 6’7″…rare freshman that looks physically strong enough to handle the Big Ten…good arm length…wants to play inside, can he play tall enough?…works hard to get in position to get the ball down low, and wants the ball (see Sims, C.)…didn’t play much, but I expect him to get more time as the season goes on (6-10 min/game based on the game)…potential team leader by next season, but not this year…good enough to have some key moments this year…looks like a slightly-larger Bernard Robinson (again in looks, not skill)

5 Dion Harris (Sr.)
most likely leading scorer this year, although I’d be happy if Courtney Sims was instead…starting PG…most dynamic player on team…will approach 30 points a few times this year, but has the occasional dud game too…needs to get to the line, which means more driving, less chucking…needs to shore up the FT shooting…takes chances on the defensive end, which means lots of steals and occasionally burned…strong, uses his shoulders well on the offensive end, both when driving the lane and when protecting the ball out top…scores big points — never afraid to take a big shot…needs to limit his turnovers

10 Reed Baker (Fr.)
DNP…will try to add some comments once I see him play

15 Jevohn Shepherd (So.)
looked active on the offensive end of the floor, which is his meal ticket…but doesn’t really get as many offensive touches as his hard work would seem to earn…also more active on the defensive end…will get decent minutes, but definite second-stringer unless Ron Coleman struggles…quick, athletic…could stand to get a little stronger…has a decent ceiling, but will he earn the minutes to reach potential?…pulled down a couple of tough rebounds, which will only help in the quest for playing time (especially on this team)…I’m just not sure he’ll get past the 10 minutes a game hump or 2-3 points a game this year

22 Ekpe Udoh (Fr.)
first freshman off the bench…looong arms, long body…thin though — one of those guys that looks like he could never bulk up no matter what he ate…long arms and good quick feet actually make him a good defender…especially tough when guarding his man away from the basket…hustles…has confidence in his shot, which isn’t always a good thing for a freshman big man…the offensive question is if his hands will keep up with his moves…looked like he could play with his back to the basket or facing it, but we’ll see after a few more games…seems to have Amaker’s trust…works hard, but can definitely be pushed around by stronger players…I like his activity

23 Brent Petway (Sr.)
the same Brent Petway of the last four years (see previous Abla Reports)…has at least earned a solid spot in the starting rotation…some guys’ ceilings are unknown, his is pretty set in stone…which is ok if he gets his 7-9 points a night and 7-8 rebounds and plays solid defense…still can jump through the roof…I expect he’ll take 1-2 more jumpers a game, but by no means a set piece of the offensive game plan (as if we have an offensive game plan)…nice free throw shooter, good soft touch…needs to always be the energy guy to be effective…YAL

24 Ron Coleman (Jr.)
seems to slowly be adding a little offensive aggressiveness to his game…not just a 3-pt. shooter anymore, shows a little assertiveness in getting to the hole…may be a team leader next year, but this year still has to defer to Abram and Harris…doesn’t have the quickest feet, but not too bad on the defensive end…gets the occasional tough rebound…good strength…can’t imagine he’ll average more than 5-6 points a game — anything more would be a good sign…

32 Lester Abram (Sr.) (medical redshirt two seasons ago)
still the quietest great player around…still silky smooth and steady…pretty decent defender, has good length for a guard…one and only key is staying healthy this year…definite team leader…never gets too high or too low, which is important on this team that thrives on emotion…could probably get a little more aggresive on the offensive end — occasionally disappears for a minutes at a time…but somehow always ends up with 10+ points even though you never notice him scoring all those points…YAL

44 Courtney Sims (Sr.)
most important player on the team — the team will go as far as Courtney Sims carries them…not always a good defensive rebounder — I think he just has trouble getting off the ground (i.e. no “ups”)…I think I figured out why he doesn’t average 16 pts/game easily — he works to get in position on the offensive end but doesn’t work to get the ball…it’s like he wants to show that he’s working hard, but I’m not always sure he wants the ball — he doesn’t get his arms up and demand the ball like he needs to…needs to develop the confidence that he should demand the ball…the equivalent of a football team’s running game — whether or not he’s successful early, he needs to continually get the ball throughout the game because sooner or later it will begin paying off…our one potential offensive player that can carry a game…I’m convinced he could have a high ceiling, but he lacks the aggresiveness to reach it most of the time…decent free throw shooter…got better late in the game, which would be a great quality to have during the Big Ten season…unfortunately it’s too easy to make him disappear for long stretches…needs to build on early season play so that he doesn’t wilt during the Big Ten season…will this senior stay at his previous seasons’ status quo, or will he play like the desperate senior who is trying to define a career?

Miscellaneous Team Notes
frankly I don’t think this team is a confident team, no matter what they say…FT shooting and defensive rebounding could be their achilles heal(s)…occasional brutal defensive (lack of) rebounding stretches…see previous Abla Reports for continued lack of an offensive “scheme” — I just don’t think this offense is set up to get a crucial basket when you need one…that will lose them at least two or three games this year — late game possessions where they don’t even come close to getting off a quality shot…Amaker — great guy, decent recruiter, very questionable in-game coach…the biggest consistent strategy seems to be his desire to horde timeouts as long as possible…this team is a three-headed monster (and in the levels of “monster” I mean somewhere around a miffed dog) — it absolutely depends on Abram, Harris, and Courtney Sims…everyone else is a complementary player to those three right now…starters are pretty set in stone and will get the most minutes, with Coleman and Petway being the lesser two of the five…as always, turnovers are part of this team’s shtick…it seems like it’s all seniors or freshmen/sophomores…will win 1-2 surprising home games…and lose 1-2 too…would be a top-notch defensive team if they could grab critical defensive rebounds…clearly better defensively than offensively…team seems like it has all the necessary parts, but the parts don’t add up to an impressive sum…to me, that’s coaching

Most important questions for the season
1) Will Courtney ever dominate consistently? My gut says no.
2) Will Abram stay healthy? Yes.
3) Will any fresman or sophomore step up and be a surprise? Yes, there is definite potential here and plenty of young options.
4) Will this team ever develop the swagger and confidence to win tough games, especially tough Big Ten road games? No.
5) Is Amaker ever going to finish top two in the Big Ten (regular season) at Michigan? No.

Predictions
As much as I’m an optimist and believe there are a lot of high-potential college players on this team, I just don’t see them ever being a strong team with the confidence to win in adverse situations. Any home game is winnable, but they’ve never proven that any road game is also winnable. Nowhere will you see the lack of toughness more than in the sheer amount of offensive rebounds we’ll give up. However, our pitiful non-conference schedule will lead to a higher win total. Please please please prove me wrong.

20 wins, 8-8 in the Big Ten + 1 win in Big Ten Tournament
4th or 5th place in Big Ten regular season
NCAA tournament 10 or 11 seed, no tournament wins