10th Annual Abla Report
The 2008-2009 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after non-conference game against Michigan Tech on November 11, 2008.
By Tim Abla
0 Zack Novak (Fr.)
first off the bench…lefty…nice passing…alternated the entire game with Douglass…which is fine because I can barely tell them apart…similar games too…not a shot creator…not looking to shoot much yet…typical freshman first game shooting guard attributes…seemed to play a little more than Douglass…decent bulk…definitely not a slasher…not bad hops…the one shot I remember was an air ball three…seemed to get more playing time than Douglass even though Douglass started…seems like his hands are close together when shooting…almost like both hands are beneath the ball to the point that you can’t tell which hand he’s shooting with
1 Stu Douglass (Fr.)
started…left everything short in warmups…and in the game…only took a couple of shots though…made nice fast break bounce pass…didn’t force shots like I expected…could actually force the issue a little more…maybe it was an off day…also had typical freshman first game shooting guard attributes…moves around well…has a nice stroke but not an all-time classic or anything…elevates well on his shot
2 C.J. Lee (Sr.)
not much playing time…was serviceable last year…more aggressive than Merritt…actually adds a little to the offense unlike Merritt…but not a whole lot…will actually take it to the hole if he sees an opening…3-5 PPG player at best…seems to be a heady player
3 Manny Harris (So.)
started…looked blazing fast as a small forward…got to the hole at will…will have 50 percent more FTs than the next guy…will have some huge scoring games this year…like tonight…needs to hit 80 percent of FTs to dominate…will easily lead the team in scoring…won’t even be close…if he develops a 3-pt shot, look out…don’t expect that this year though…looks like he could average 17 PPG easily…is 20 a possibility?…with his ability to get to the line I just don’t see him scoring less than 13 in any game, even on an off night…improved touch when he got to the bucket…looks like he may justify All Big Ten selection…just felt like he was in complete control this game unlike at times last year…has to be the answer to the long scoring droughts of years past
12 Anthony Wright (So.)
started…first M shot was a 28-footer…and made it…followed by 22-footer…and made it…surpassed expectations last year…can he do that this year?…shot another 25-footer later, unfortunately was only 20 feet from basket at the time…8 PPG would be a bonus…surprisingly I don’t feel bad when he’s in the game, unlike a couple of the players…solid but not spectacular role player at both ends of the floor…the type of player who will have widely fluctuating point totals depending on whether or not his 3-pt shot is falling
15 David Merritt (Sr.)
started(!)…got way more PT than I wanted…no aggressiveness at all…gets it across half court and then his role is done…offers no pressure on the defense from the offensive end…not like he’s bad, he just doesn’t really add anything and doesn’t force the defense to respect him…if he averages even 3 points I might be surprised
22 Jevohn Shepherd (Sr.)
almost no role…which fits with previous years…disappointing but expected at this point…played late…didn’t do much…safe to say his season and career will be looked upon as underwhelming…just not a good shooter at all…which clearly goes against the whole Beilein offense…safe to say he’s not a good fit for this team…not that he ever really played much under Amaker
23 Corey Person (Fr.)
did not play (DNP)
30 Eric Puls (Fr.)
only played in a mop-up role…lanky…hustles…bit player at best this year…pretty active…will only see meaningful playing time if bigs are injured or in major foul trouble…or if Beilein wants to send a “hustle” message
31 Laval Lucas-Perry (Fr.)
DNP…ineligible until January due to transfer rules…hoping he plays a major role but who knows
32 Zack Gibson (Jr.)
started…actually pump faked someone at the three point line and drove in for an uncontested dunk(!)…very active…which is the only way he’s effective…really nice shot for a big man…got hung up on the officiating a little too much today…doesn’t have a low post game…but activity makes defenders work…really nice FT for a big man…not the highest of ceilings but solid enough to be a plus when on the court…another heady player…somebody Beilein can count on…you know what you’re getting with him…8 PPG would be nice
34 DeShawn Sims (Jr.)
didn’t start(!!)…lefty…just don’t like it when he hovers outside…outside shot is sometimes too flat…seemed insignificant in the first half, which isn’t good at all for this team…lack of playing time was surprising…wonder if a message is being sent…still doesn’t finish well at the rim…reminds me of Bernard Robinson in that he puts too much spin when finishing off the glass…looked much more aggressive in the second half…rebounded well…will probably finish second in scoring because of lack of other scorers…doubting he’ll ever be the offensive “force” some (including me) thought he could be…would be a strong third fiddle, not sure if he’s second fiddle quality…strong…part of the problem is that his shot isn’t great, but he doesn’t have the height or ups for a true inside game…despite earlier comments had two very nice/tough alley-oop layups off the glass…I think the spin issue comes into play when there are defenders in the area, which wasn’t the case on the alley-oops…11-13 PPG player…14 would be a major bonus considering Manny’s output
35 Ben Cronin (Fr.)
biggest guy we’ve had in a while…even makes Zack Gibson look small…a bit awkward…sort of a plodder…long wing span…barring injury to Gibson and Sims, very small role this year…are injuries preventing his playing time?…was laboring (hopefully with some sort of injury) up and down the court…made other players look foolish by just rebounding flat-footed…can rebound easily without leaving the floor with that height and wing span…will never be overly mobile…if he ever got significant playing time, could become the rebounder we need…just don’t expect much of anything this year
44 Kelvin Grady (So.)
still our only pure point guard…quickest guy not named Manny on the team…pushes the ball better than our other guards…needs to win the starting PG role for this team to take the next step…if he doesn’t, not sure what his role will be when Lucas-Perry is eligible…may have more turnovers than our other PGs but that’s because the others just get across half court and dump the ball to someone else…upside is much higher than Merritt and Lee…seems like the only coach on the floor directing other players during the game…I would love to see him get 30 minutes a game for a few games to see what he can do with consistent minutes
Miscellaneous Team Notes
like the early warmup drills…emphasize movement, cutting, passing…no standing around…mimic real plays, not just layup drills…even have different drills going on at the same time for low post players and perimiter players…certainly didn’t shoot well as a team in warmups, which is alarming since teams usually shoot extremely well during warmups…need to shorten the threes a little…better rebounding than I expected for a while…then seemed to give up a lot of offensive rebounds…Tech was short, rebounding shouldn’t have been a problem…applied nice pressure defensively…lots of tipped passes and Tech possessions without a shot…on offense seemed to do a lot more of the cutting and passing that I expected last year…it was very effective…not a lot of negatives in this game, Tech wasn’t a big challenge…about 2-3 players and one more year of experience away from being a solid Big Ten team…Lucas-Perry is expected to help that…I like the attitude of this team…unselfish, no-frills players…Manny is a one man offensive show…interior defense is probably still a problem…stayed out of foul trouble, but not hard vs. Tech…occasionally still going to that interesting 1-3-1 zone where Grady is under the basket…it’s strangely effective…I think the theory is that it’s hard to get the ball down low against that defense…guards were never pressed, and we never really pressed Tech’s guards…kind of a vanilla game outside of Manny…team just won’t consistently get to the line outside of Manny…and our FT shooting concerns me
Facility notes
new floor is probably more noticeable on TV than in person…I like the new clocks on the basket supports (aka welcome to the 2000s!)…sound system is MUCH improved…not sure why they would move the band into actual seats…may help mess with a FT here or there…added women’s gymnastics banners…for the first time in my life it didn’t feel like they imported water from the Arctic Circle for the bathroom sinks
Most important questions for the season
1) Can anyone besides Manny score consistently?
No, unless Sims elevates his consistency.
2) Can Grady win the starting PG role?
I don’t see how he can’t, at least until Lucas-Perry is eligible.
3) Whose minutes will Lucas-Perry take?
Hopefully Merritt and Lee, otherwise things aren’t going well.
4) Will any of the freshman average 6 PPG this year?
Not unless Douglass racks up extra points against the non-conference cupcakes.
5) Is our field goal percentage going to improve enough to make a difference?
Some hope here due to better shooters and more experience in the system.
Biggest strengths
1) Manny.
2) The number of quality players is becoming adequate.
3) Manny.
Biggest weaknesses
1) Rebounding.
2) Interior defense.
3) Lack of FT attempts and poor FT percentage.
Predictions
Beilein is beginning to put the pieces in place for his system. Unfortunately those pieces are so young that it can’t be counted as “his team” yet. As I said he’s still a few parts away from having a solid team, so the ceiling is only so high this year. The non-conference schedule is mostly cupcakes, however, along with a couple of real toughies. If there are no major surprises, we’ll be around 8-3 after the non-conference schedule (not including the loss, I mean game, at UConn in the middle of the Big Ten season). The non-conference schedule almost automatically helps us to improve on last season’s win total. There are still several games we have no chance of winning in the Big Ten season. The questions are if we can win the games we’re supposed to win and go .500 in the “winnable” games. Unfortunately I still think we’re a year away from being that consistent. The freshman just can’t be counted on yet. Losing only Lee, Merritt, and Shepherd after this year makes me feel good about next year’s team, but this is about this year. Oh, and for these predictions Manny…must…stay…healthy. So:
14-16 record, 6-12 in the Big Ten regular season
One Big Ten tourney win
Eighth place Big Ten regular season
No NCAA tourney, challenging for but probably just short of an NIT bid
Dividends start paying off next year