2009-2010 Annual Abla Report

11th Annual Abla Report
The 2009-2010 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after non-conference game against Northern Michigan on November 14, 2009.
By Tim Abla

0 Zack Novak (So.)
definitely lost some weight…but never going to be overly-athletic…one of the emotional leaders of the team…Mr. Intangibles on this team…with a solid 3-pt shot…looked like both ankles were wrapped…seems to carry this team at times when nobody else can do anything (which should continue to be less often this year)…really good around the rim, especially without the ball…one of the few guys who can get a tough rebound…lefty…unimpressive at first glance, but a guy you love to have on your team because he does all the little things so well…just better than he looks like he should be…starts at PF…obviously small for a PF, which is fine against lesser non-conference teams but a tough role in the Big Ten…9-11 PPG player (3-ptrs and hustle buckets), with the occasional 20 point flourish

1 Stu Douglass (So.)
might have the most basketball “savvy” on this team…second string PG (i.e. when Morris is out of the game)…moves to SG when in the game with Morris…majority of his minutes will still be SG (his natural position)…not your typical PG, but I’m ok with it because of the high basketball IQ…such a sweet stroke…one of many great shooters on this team…I look for him to be a significant part of the offense this year…not sure about his defense though, especially when he’s playing opposing PG’s who can get to the basket…another 9-11 PPG player (mainly 3-ptrs and fast break layups) with a couple of 20 point games in him

3 Manny Harris (Jr.)
oh my goodness, looks unstoppable this year…the one guy who was draining everything in warmups…incredibly quick, the definition of a slasher on offense…much better outside shooter last year, if it improved at all he’s going to have a handful of 30 point games…I’ll be surprised if he averages less than 18 PPG this year, with 20 PPG a possibility…just looked like a machine who could get to the basket at will…55/45 that he’ll lead the team in scoring this year (45% chance it’s Sims)…just needs to stay out of foul trouble, eliminate the dumb fouls…looked active on the defensive end…just looked focused all around, like he knows it’s his last year and is going to leave it all on the floor…fantastic at finishing around the hoop…gets to the line a lot and has a good FT percentage, which could push him over 20 PPG…has to be on the floor, can’t pick up those two quick fouls in the first few minutes of games…maybe the one guy who can be a tiny bit selfish on this team…but he absolutely deserves to be with his offensive skills…oddly enough there’s a small chance he’ll lead the team in rebounds this year…can occasionally nab rebounds he has no business getting…first team All Big Ten lock

4 Darius Morris (Fr.)
wow, very different than the PGs of the last few years…6’4″, our tallest PG in a long time (as far as I can remember)…looked readyfor college ball, no nerves…very good passer…but too in love with the no-look pass…that said he converted most of them…but I’m sure that will be aggravating at times…extremely good on the fast break, both with and without the ball…his good size might be even more noticeable on the defensive end…played out at the top when in the zone, and made it extremely tough on the other team…they had to loft balls over him, which is going to end up in a fair amount of steals and fast breaks…good finisher at the hoop…shot reminds me a little like Daniel Horton’s, sort of in slow motion and from his shoulder…although it’s a little more in front of him than Horton’s shot was…not nearly as good of a shooter though…didn’t take many outside shots (if any)…good ball-handling skills…keeps his head up nicely on the fast break, is looking to set people up with easy hoops…needs to stay out of foul trouble, since he is our best PG (even as a freshman)…aggressiveness on defense will get him in foul trouble a few games this year…very excited about his play as a freshman…his size should minimize the amount of times he’s overwhelmed as a freshman, but he’ll have his freshman games…wondering how he’ll be able to handle small, quick PGs…showed very little selfishness, and seemed to have a good handle of the offense…just showed a little too much flash at times…pass-first PG, just how they should be…8-9 PPG average, mostly around the hoop and at the FT line

5 Eso Akunne (Fr.)
played garbage time…looks like the football team could use him at fullback…not a player of significance this year…got to the hoop nicely with a nice finish…strong, very strong

12 Anthony Wright (Jr.)
definitely in the rotation, but just not enough shots to go around for him to be a consistent offensive player…streaky 3-pt shooter…most of the time you’ll wish he didn’t take the shot, but he’ll have a game or two where he makes 5 of 6 3-ptrs…6 PPG ceiling…basically just a guy to eat up some minutes when Novak and/or Manny need a breather…ok, he might also have a tiny bit of selfishness in him…i.e. may force his 3-ptrs a little just to get a shot

13 Matt Vogrich (Fr.)
missed almost every shot I watched him take in warmups…then promptly went 5-5 on 3-ptrs in the game…didn’t even touch the rim during the game…looks like he could be in 11th grade…I’m pretty sure he’ll average the lowest number of dribbles per shot in Michigan history…took 5 shots tonight, with zero dribbles (if I recall correctly)…very quick release…squares up nicely…two times I saw him jump at the defensive player who was taking the shot, and both jumps were somewhat unimpressive…one jump on the offensive end looked a little better though…don’t know that it’s the most perfect-looking shot I’ve ever seen, but he clearly can shoot it well…my guess is he’s going to have a rough time on the defensive end against athletic players…not sure he’ll get a ton of minutes this year during the Big Ten season…if he averaged more than 6-7 PPG that would be a big bonus…I’ve never seen him and Shaggy in the same room at the same time…I’m just sayin’…not sure he’ll get to the line very often, so he probably won’t get many “free” points…not sure how much we’ll see he and Douglass on the floor at the same time, unless Douglass is playing PG

22 Blake McLimans (Fr.)
did not play (DNP)…long…worked on his outside shot a lot during warmups…shot was a little goofy-looking, maybe a little to much in front of him…but he’s tall enough that that may not matter…just may get blocked more often than most big guys…may be a redshirt candidate, I don’t see him getting many minutes this year

31 Laval Lucas-Perry (So.)
started at SG…the main candidate for getting lost in the offense this year due to the number of offensive players on this team…wondering if he’ll hold off Douglass as the starting SG…but he might since Douglass also fills in at PG…not sure if Laval will also fill in at PG or not…don’t think he did tonight…going with the headband and super-high socks look this year…just didn’t seem to do much tonight…was either fantastic or invisible last year…needs to be more aggressive if he’s going to get his share of shots on this team…he’ll either average 5 PPG or 10 PPG, but I have no idea which…so we’ll go with 7.5 PPG :)…I think he’s good for 2-3 18 point games, with a host of 5 point games…didn’t notice him defensively…didn’t notice him rebouding the ball…but showed enough strong games last year (at the beginning and end of the season, not in the middle) that he could be a wild-card this year…he, Douglass, and Vogrich look like the smallest guys on the team (all about the same size)

32 Zack Gibson (Sr.)
extremely active on the offensive end…which I love…could top out at 10 PPG game this year…mostly on hustle points and FTs…and maybe one 3-ptr a game…unfortunately still doesn’t get a ton of minutes at the same time as Sims…one of the key guys who could put this team over the top this year…seems to get more rebounds offensively than defensively…needs to be high-energy every game, every minute he’s on the floor…may be the highest energy guy on the team…not a great 3-pt shooter, so I don’t know why he takes so many (ok, another selfish guy from the outside?)…not a great interior defender by any means…pretty nice-looking FT, with a soft touch…high-arcing outside shot…just not accurate past the FT line…should benefit as much as anyone by playing on a Beilein team

34 DeShawn Sims (Sr.)
had an incredible junior year, and looks like he’s ready to pick up where he left off last year…may also average at least 17 PPG…still can’t jump well…seems to miss a lot right at the basket…missed a dunk, which I attribute to lack of jumping ability…looked like he played more exclusively inside this year, even though his 12-15 foot shot was pretty solid last year…decent chance he could lead the team in scoring…will probably lead in rebounds…also needs to stay out of foul trouble for this team to go places…other than missing bunnies, looked very consistent on the offensive end…along with Manny, will shoot a lot of FTs…pretty good FT for a bigger guy…should only benefit from having so many good outside shooters on this team…I think he’s a second team All Big Ten player…didn’t notice him a lot defensively, either good or bad…but it was only Northern Michigan…when he and Manny are both going strong like tonight, this team may be able to play with anyone in the Big Ten

35 Ben Cronin (Fr.)
almost any movement he makes looks painful to me…just doesn’t look like he’s fully recovered yet…one of his knees doesn’t look like it has full mobility…moves like either a) one leg is three inches shorter than the other, or b) he’s nowhere close to being healthy…unfortunately didn’t play until garbage time…has a very nice 10-12 footer when squared to the basket (at least in warmups)…but looks pretty awkward around the basket…although he has a pretty soft touch around the rim — it just looks awkward…made a nice little lefty 3-footer tonight…has every chance in the world to be a key part of this team (given the lack of big men), but I have a hard time believing he’ll take advantage of that opportunity this year…very vocal defensively…gives the team a different look on the defensive end with his length…one of those guys who can grab rebounds flat-footed…which is good since he isn’t exactly a high jumper…will be forced into some games when Sims and/or Gibson gets into foul trouble…otherwise I see him as a 6-8 min/game player…2-3 PPG tops…should average twice as many rebounds as points…which I’m totally fine with given this team…right wrist was also wrapped

52 Jordan Morgan (Fr.)
DNP…was in a suit…most likely will redshirt due to injury rehab…unfortunate given that he’s another big man

Miscellaneous Team Notes
easily the highest basketball IQ of any Michigan team I’ve watched…you can tell Beilein values that when recruiting…unselfish team, lots of passing…some really great ball movement without the ball touching the ground…which led to some really easy baskets…once again probably won’t be a very good rebounding team…but outside shooters galore…will live and die by the 3-ptr…more games than not, they will shoot a good percentage from outside the arc…not a lot of shot-creators though (really only Manny and Morris)…teams that defend the three ball well will give this team fits…as will teams with skilled big men…I like the warmups — when Northern wasn’t on the floor they split the big men and back court players (one group at each end of the floor) so that each group could do separate drills…makes total sense since they need to work on different skills…many times teams use both ends during warmups, but I’ve never seen an organized split-up like this…team full of poker-faced players…they don’t show much facial emotion after good or bad plays…although there is the occasional primal scream after a big play (yes, I’m talking to you, Novak)…not a very good jumping team…the backcourt has adequate size at this point…it’s just the frontcourt that could use more bodies/size…seemed to play less 1-3-1 zone this year…most likely because Morris is big enough that they don’t have to “hide” a guy behind the big guys like last year…this team will burn up the nets at times this year…it’s capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry when the shots are falling…will probably be the highest scoring Michigan team in a while…really good zone defensive team…and a strong fast break team (as long as they hold on to the ball)…I’m pretty sure this team will lead the Big Ten in Zack’s and Eso’s…team will top 100 points a couple of times this year

Facility Notes
1) I think they might have (finally) changed the student section back to general admission seating, which caused it to be the earliest-arriving and biggest student section since, well, I went to school at U of M. Just how it should be. Impressive student section for a weak early-season opponent.
2) The sound system base seemed better than I remember.
3) OK, the Flex Cam is one of the dumber ideas I’ve ever seen. Just lame enough to be a tiny bit amusing though. Bet it gets old real fast.
4) Can we get a new PA announcer?

Most important questions for the season
1) What player (outside of Manny/Sims) could have the biggest influence on this team?
It comes down to two guys — Morris and Cronin. Both fill one of the two biggest weaknesses of last year’s team (PG and frontcourt depth). Morris is clearly more skilled and will play WAY more than Cronin, but Cronin is the answer to this question. If Cronin was legit and played 15 minutes a game, that would allow Sims to be on the floor with another big way more than he is now, and I think that would put this team over the top. Nobody else can do that for this team (give Sims another big man to play with). As opposed to Morris (who looks VERY good for a freshman PG); there are other players who could play PG adequately. So Cronin is the answer to this question, however it’s clear after tonight that this is a moot point — Cronin isn’t going to be that player.
2) What then will put this team over the top?
For this team to be a Big Ten contender and make the Sweet 16 or beyond, three things have to happen: 1) Sims and Manny have to play, oh, 34 Min/game-ish, 2) the team has to shoot 40% from behind the arc, and 3) it can’t run into a team with a lot of big men of any decent skill level. So, some luck is involved in that last aspect.
3) What is this team’s achilles heal?
Rebounding. It’s going to kill this team occasionally. Oh, and interior defense (the other heal).
4) Will Morris be an above or below average freshman PG in the Big Ten?
I actually think he’ll hold his own this year, mainly because of a) his size and b) the players around him. He has enough good players to get the ball too (which he can do) that he doesn’t have to do much else. And defensively he looks good, so I think he’ll give as many opposing PGs fits as will give him fits. His size will make up for a lot of shortcomings. I say slightly above average.

Predictions
20-10 record, 11-7 in the Big Ten regular season, 9-3 in the non-conference schedule (if anything I think this is being conservative)
Two Big Ten tourney wins
Tie for Third place Big Ten regular season
Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA tourney, Great Eight depends on the Sweet Sixteen matchup

This is the year I encourage you to go to games. Buy tickets, early and often. This is a fun team to watch, and should provide for a lot of great home games. Don’t miss out on watching this team!