12th Annual Abla Report
The 2010-2011 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after non-conference game against Saginaw Valley State on November 5, 2010.
By Tim Abla
0 Zack Novak (Jr.)
pretty much the same player as the last two years…big difference is that he won’t be playing as much power forward this year…finally will get most of his minutes at small forward, a more agreeable position to his size…biggest mystery in my 12 years of doing this is how he manages to get some of the rebounds he gets…like most of the returning players, needs to up his FG percentage by a fair amount…if the team has a captain (not sure if it does or not), Novak would be it…still mainly a3-pt shooter…favorite spot is the corner…good defensive rebounder…8-10 PPG player…starter
1 Stu Douglass (Jr.)
still the backup PG since nobody else can really do it…needs to increase his FG percentage more than anyone else…some guys are great warmup shooters, Douglass is not for whatever reason…has a nice stroke with good rotation…good candidate to be passed by Vogrich if he doesn’t shoot the ball better this year…gets his hand on a lot of passes defensively…one of the savvier players on the team…realizes well when there is a defensive breakdown and drives the lane…worked on running one-handers a lot in warmups…make or break year for him…7-9 PPG player
2 Jordan Dumars (So.)
Did not play (DNP)…I didn’t even see him out there during warmups…injured?…doubt he would play even if he’s healthy
4 Darius Morris (So.)
the only true PG on the team…I’ll believe he has a shot when I see it…got more aggressive as the game wore on…got to the foul line a ton late, but the other team was trying to foul him in an attempt to extend the clock…hit all three of his FTs after getting fouled on a 3-pt attempt…then struggled the rest of the game on FTs…real tough to defend in the open court…not as effective of a PG in the half court game…didn’t do much in the first half, took control in the second half…prime candidate for leading scorer on this team…which isn’t saying a whole lot…most of his points will come near the basket and on FTs, not outside shots…will get to the line a lot…but needs to improve the FT percentage a lot…decent rebounder for a PG…good defender, long arms and active…should be one of the tougher defensive PGs in the league…just doesn’t have a pretty stroke…still, will get points just because the ball is in his hands a lot…9-12 PPG player…starter
5 Eso Akunne (So.)
did not play/will not play (DNP/WNP)…looks like he should be on the football team
10 Tim Hardaway, Jr. (Fr.)
probably this year’s most intriguing player…hit about 10 straight 3-pt shots in warmups…by the end of warmups I was convinced he might lead the team in scoring this year…then missed almost all of his shots in the game…gait is an exact replica of LaVell Blanchard…much more athletic though…not as good of a shot unfortunately…nice hops…pretty thin, but taller than I expected…shoots from high in the air, will be tough to block…seemed to think every shot should have gone in…couldn’t believe when they (all) didn’t…I think he’ll have some pretty good games offensively, and some 2-for-12 games…long arms…active defensively, but was beat a few times…the team’s flash begins and ends with him…just reading between the body language lines, my guess if there will be a guy in the doghouse at any point this year, it will be him…not many candidates for that though…has a good angry look during the game…has a lot of talent, just needs a consistent shot and a little seasoning…starter…too high of a dribble when dribbling on a fast break…can create shots for himself
13 Matt Vogrich (So.)
has the shot Douglass is supposed to have, and a poor man’s Novak when it comes to intangibles…I think he’ll be the most improved player on the team this year…has an effortless stroke…added some size and a little ball-handling ability…doesn’t look overmatched physically anymore…one of the first players off the bench…better rebounder than you would expect…will earn more PT as the season wears on…like Novak, one of those guys who just “gets it”…7-9 PPG player…
15 Jon Horford (Fr.)
the last of the players in the regular rotation…not the twig I was expecting…legs were reasonably large, I thought…upper body is definitely on the thin side though…awkward body in that respect…kind of a goofy runner too…wasn’t bad in this game, but will get pushed around in the Big Ten…didn’t notice any above-average skills…but didn’t embarrass himself either…made one or two nice moves around the basket…will be on the low end of PT scale although will probably be in the lineup each game…2-3 PPG player this year…not sure he’ll ever acquire the upper body size you would hope for…average athletically
20 Josh Bartelstein (So.)
DNP/WNP
22 Blake McLimans (Redshirt So.)
the longest of the bigs…third of the three bigs too…very “hoppy”…active in a hoppy sort of way…takes 3 PT shots but probably shouldn’t yet…quickest of the three big guys…long arms, had a nice block into the third row…needs to box out better…a little on the thin side, could use a little more girth…not a complete twig though…will get some rebounds because of length, but will get pushed around in the Big Ten…a couple of nice moves near the basket…pretty quick for a big guy…certainly a nice player to have on your team, but will struggle as a freshman…man do his cheeks turn red as he gets winded…twin of Vogrich, just taller…last name has hard ‘i’, like Mc-lie-mans
23 Evan Smotrycz (Fr.)
very interesting player…starter…last name rhymes with Squa-tricks (soft ‘o’)…raises his shot almost on the left side of his face, which is odd for a right-hander…drives very well for a big guy…but not a great leaper…replaces DeShawn Sims as the big guy who will get the most shots blocked…result of all drives is getting fouled and going to the line…very simple FT, no wasted or jerky movements…will get to the line a ton for a freshman big man…likes to hide out in the corner and wait for the defense to forget about him…pretty savvy for a freshman…seemed to like the flashier side of passing in warmups…possible candidate for leading the team in scoring given the number of shots he’ll take and the number of times he’ll get to the line…one of the better FT shooters on the team…one of the few good ones…average size for a big man, not a stick…you can tell he’ll be a good player, but not athletic enough in the Big Ten?…8-11 PPG player…decent rebounder…very even keel, not much emotion…without making him sound lazy, puts out the minimum amount of effort to do what he’s doing…not saying that in a bad way (yet), more of an efficient sort of mover/passer…keep an eye on that though…not afraid of taking shots
32 Corey Person (Redshirt So.)
DNP/WNP
45 Colton Christian (Fr.)
interesting player…made a lot of really nice hustle plays that created new possessions…offensive rebounding and saving balls that were heading out of bounds…clearly a defensive specialist and not much offense…only offense will come on tip-in rebounds here and there…2 PPG player…long arms…pretty athletic…good to have a guy like this to possibly shut down another team’s player…good leaping ability…doesn’t really look for the basket or to even hold the ball on offense…decent rebounder
52 Jordan Morgan (Redshirt Fr.)
nice to have someone with a jersey number in the 50’s again…starter…the one guy who has the size for the Big Ten…very strong…not as slow as I expected…committed some bad fouls far from the basket…needs to stay out of foul trouble…the only guy who really worked on low post moves during warmups…showed a little bit of decent touch around the basket…won’t be a huge scorer, but will be decent for a freshman…5-7 PPG player…got some tough rebounds…helped ok on defense a few times, but got burned a few other times…needs to spend his fouls under the defensive basket, not the offensive basket…the only big guy who seems comfortable offensively with his back to the basket
Miscellaneous Team Notes
more size this year…although none of that size has even a minute of experience…that said, should be able to play multiple bigs at a time this year…which will be an improvement over the past couple of years…you know where to set expectations when they started two true freshmen, a redshirt freshman, a sophomore and a junior…set them low…lots of guys with length, but not the most athletic team out there…rebounding will be pretty frustrating at times…FT shooting may be even more frustrating…it will be interesting to see how effective the 1-3-1 can be with the additional length…didn’t play it as much during this game as far as I could tell…crazy how young this team is…will have too many very poor FG shooting games…not sure there will be many high percentage games…you can see that there are some interesting parts though…just too young and inexperienced to accomplish much in the Big Ten this year…need to cut back on the number of 3-pt shots in my opinion…Ben Cronin seems to be a part of the team in some respect, but I doubt he’ll ever play again with the limp he’s got…lots of new drills in warmups…completely new coaching staff (besides Beilein), including trainer?…very little outward emotion on this team, mainly just even-keeled players…Beilein still likes to save his first timeout for the last minute of the first half…will have some long scoring droughts this year…won’t be a high-scoring team
Facility Notes
1) Construction for the new practice facility is under way in the parking lot next to Crisler. Right now it’s mainly a hole in the ground with a few walls.
2) Up top between sections 41 and 42 it looked like they installed about 40 new seats and a hand rail in the aisle. Not sure why they would do that, but my guess is that’s what the whole arena is going to be like next year. So you can see next year’s seats and hand rails if you want to go up there.
Most important questions for the season
1) How high is the ceiling this year?
Not very high. The amount of youth on this team is crazy. Even if there are parts in place, this year will not be the year it shows.
2) Which players would other teams want when they are upper classmen?
I think Darius Morris will turn out to be a pretty good PG without a great shot. I have a feeling Smotrycz will be an effective player during his career. Hardaway has the highest ceiling, but will he live up to his potential? Those are the three top players. Vogrich could be a weapon if there was a lot of talent around him, but that’s not the case here right now. Morgan and McLimans would make for nice depth on other teams, but probably aren’t All-Big-Ten type players.
3) What is the best part of this team, this season?
Just the fact that they can play numerous big guys now, as inexperienced as they may be, is an improvement over previous seasons. Moving Novak to the 3 will help him immensely. Other teams won’t have that same glaring size mismatch they’ve had recently.
4) What is the biggest weakness this season?
Inexperience, by far. You’ll notice this in the rebouding abuse and some glaring lack of defense around the basket at times this year (not that that wasn’t a problem in previous years too!). Runners-up: FT shooting, athleticism, and lack of ability to create shots at times.
Predictions
10-22 overall
7-6 in non-conference
3-16 in the Big Ten (including 0-1 in the Big Ten tourney)
No post-season tournaments