15th Annual Abla Report
The 2013-2014 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after exhibition game against Wayne State on November 4, 2013.
By Tim Abla
1 Glenn Robinson III (So.)
definitely bulked up a bit…played a pretty passive first half…faced the type of defender that is tough for him — quick feet and long arms…much more aggressive in the second half…created a few shots for himself in the second half after very little in the first…can take more contact in the paint and still get a shot off this year…not bad, but not a great defender…if the team truly goes with two bigs on the floor Robinson should benefit more than anyone…he’s probably only 6′ 7″, so he’s definitely not a power forward like they played him last year…hopefully can get more rebounds out of him at the 3…needs to be more consistent at the FT line…he or Stauskus will be the leading scorer…14-16 ppg…didn’t take many 3’s tonight but has that shot in him
2 Spike Albrecht (So.)
perfectly comfortable with him as the backup PG…I wouldn’t even feel too bad if he was the starting PG…looks like Beilein’s offense is second nature at this point, really comfortable running the point…very effective 3-pt shooter despite the odd hitch in his shot…can get to the hole as well as any short, physically-limited PG…just so smart and aggressive when he sees a lane…excellent fast break passer…especially with the bounce pass…probably the team’s best FT shooter…not that he gets many opportunities…doesn’t score a ton, but when he does, it’s in bunches…can be a small liabilitiy on defense against the right PG, but usually is fine…I would say he’s the team’s smartest, safest player…doesn’t turn it over much…just not physically gifted enough to be a long-term starter, but will get more minutes than a typical backup PG…Walton is clearly the starter, but I’d expect Spike to still get 15+ minutes a game…puts very little spin on his 3-pt shots…not the biggest fan of his shooting motion (hitchy, elbow way out) but it’s very effective…co-winner of the Zach Novak Floor Burn Award along with McGary
4 Mitch McGary (So.)
Did not play (DNP)…lefty…clearly takes this team to another level when he’s healthy…big gaping talent deficit in the middle when he’s out…best attitude on the team…always energetic and cheering his teammates whether playing or not…can’t comment on anything new as he didn’t play…I think he’s in a good spot on this team as he’s not a 35 minutes-per-game player…there is good big man depth behind him…could really hurt teams if he becomes a better FT shooter…I would expect him to get fouled a lot towards the end of close games…best outlet passer on the team…probably the best Michigan big at that since Webber…looked reasonably healthy…even jogged off the floor in dress shoes…dark horse for leading the team in scoring, but I’d expect Robinson or Stauskus to lead…best rebounder on the team…would be an even bigger weapon offensively if his 12-footer developed…showed a few signs of having that shot in the NCAA tourney…co-winner of Zach Novak Floor Burn Award with Spike…needs to stay out of foul trouble with his increased minutes this year…outlet passes directly lead to effective fast breaks
5 Andrew Dakich (Fr.)
DNP…will not play (WNP)…slightly taller and stockier than Spike…decent shot, but very low release point…seems like it could get blocked a lot
10 Derrick Walton, Jr. (Fr.)
unlike some PGs, he’s physically ready for college ball…good ball handler and passer…more aggressive looking for shots than I expected based on his reputation…nice looking 3-pt shot…and FT…looks like he’ll be one of our best FT shooters…no problems bringing the ball up the floor…and not afraid to handle it on the offensive end…nice passer on the fast break…could use a few more inches on his vertical leap in my opinion…nice rotation on his shot…maybe 6′ 1″…won’t get a ton of rebounds but strong enough to get the occasional defensive rebound in traffic…maybe a 8-10 ppg player…despite being the starting PG, won’t dominate the PG minutes with Spike and LeVert also playing the point
11 Nik Stauskas (So.)
you can see that he’s added a few pounds of muscle…very solid ball handler…even brought the ball up court a couple of times…probably at a better position for him at the 2…would love to see him become a better defender this year…and rebounder…added strength allows him to hit some fallaway 3-pt shots now…and take contact better when driving the lane…very effective at getting to the hole…for as good of a shooter as he his, puts a little side spin on the ball…hopefully the added bulk will help him deal with the Big Ten grind a little better as well…certainly fell off last year in the Big Ten season…added strength should help this year…needs to be a better FT shooter…could easily average 14-15 ppg…hopefully celebrates his 3’s a little less this year and concentrates more on getting back on defense…doesn’t lack in confidence…will carry this team in a couple of games this year
12 Cole McConnell (Fr.)
DNP/WNP…actually looked like a decent athlete with decent ups…and a nice shot…lefty
15 Jon Horford (Redshirt Jr.)
he is what he is at this point…good but not great rebounder…best shot-blocker on the team…not much offensive skill…not the best hands in the world…let at least two nice passes slip through his hands tonight…rebounds per game will probably be greater than his points per game…showed a little baby hook in warmups but didn’t use it in the game…would be a nice weapon if it developed as he has no other real weapons at the offensive end…not what I’d call a quick-footed big man…but certainly a solid backup big man to have on your team…his main offense will be putbacks and the occasional cut to the hole off a nice pass…his drives to the basket usually seem to be from the FT line, not along the baseline…not a big vertical leap…while an ok defensive rebounder, can be pretty frustrating at times…5-6 ppg player
20 Sean Lonergan (Fr.)
DNP/WNP
21 Zak Irvin (Fr.)
interesting freshman…not a big fan of his release…seems to hold the ball way too far to the left and release it across his face…putting a funky side spin on the ball…and promptly hit his first three 3-pt shots…good athlete…not sure if I saw a great vertical leap or just an ok vertical leap…long arms…I can honestly say I’ve never said this before, but has very impressive shoulders…looks like he’s wearing shoulder pads under his uniform…solid defensively with his long arms…can be brought along a little slower as Michigan has plenty of wing players…a little more passive than other players right now…will be interesting to see if he becomes more aggressive this year or not…not thin, but probably could use about 10 more pounds of muscle…shot the ball quite well…has quite the knee bend on his FT shot…leads to a nice arc on his shot…seemed like a decent FT shooter but not elite…good athlete to have on the fast break…but had a fast break layup blocked from behind…not sure if a better vertical leap would have beat the block or if he just didn’t expect that guy to be there…will get decent minutes but not sure he’ll get starter minutes…which will probably limit him to about 8-10 ppg max…jury is out if he is a strong rebounder or not…continues Michigan’s strong run of Zaks/Zachs
23 Caris LeVert (So.)
so long…added a little bulk but still looks thin…opposite shoulders of Irvin…not sure he really has shoulders…quickest player on the team…which actually seems to hurt him sometimes too…so quick that I feel like he rushes his shot…good warmup shooter when he’s not pressured…but in games just rushes so much that I can’t see him being an elite shooter…same with his FT, it’s almost too quick…but man does he cover a lot of ground quickly…without even moving his feet(!) with his long wingspan…very good ball handler for a player of his height…3rd string PG…yet will still get 5-7 minutes per game at the point…gives Michigan something it hasn’t had since Darius Morris when playing the point by being able to pass over the defense to bigs on pick and rolls…I expect that to get McGary and Morgan a few easy buckets…excellent crossover move with his quickness and length…pretty good defense, but I wouldn’t say he’s a shutdown defender yet…has all of the tools to be a shutdown defender but just isn’t there yet…I just don’t see him being a high FG percentage player until he slows down…maybe a 8-10 ppg player as well…gives Michigan the ability to go extremely long when he’s at the point
34 Mark Donnal (Fr.)
best long-range shot of the big men on the team…will probably redshirt though…played at the 5 late in the game…didn’t seem like a natural center though…more of a 4 in an ideal world probably…nice-looking shot…didn’t get a chance to see his quickness (or lack of quickness) tonight…will be a nice fit in the Beilein system some day
44 Max Bielfeldt (Redshirt So.)
filler player at best…bruiser of a body but no vertical leap…played for a few minutes at the 5 with no other bigs…got owned on the boards…not long enough or enough of a leaper to be the only big on the floor…so strong…winner yet again of the Max Bielfeldt Thickest Calves Award, naturally…not a bad shot…Big Ten body, but won’t get many minutes…will get a few per game as a backup 4 probably
52 Jordan Morgan (Grad Student)
defensive leader…great help defender…could be an interesting player this year not having to play center…could really benefit from having another big on the floor…good quick feet for a big man…runs the floor well as well…really nice pick and roll player…has mostly done a better job of staying out of foul trouble…known quantity at this point…gets to the rim pretty well for a big man…but misses a few really frustrating bunnies…if the team has captains, I’d expect him to be one if not THE one…I think he’ll start next to McGary…not a bad FT shooter
Miscellaneous Team Notes
team needs to improve on its FT shooting…especially Robinson and Stauskus as they will probably get the most FTs…McGary as well, but I don’t have as high of expectations for him as a FT shooter…played most of the first half with two bigs…and a good deal of the second half with only one big…team rebounding should improve over previous years with two bigs, but some athleticism is lost…pretty good outlet passers for big men, with McGary being excellent at it…definitely can go long when LeVert is at PG…players seem to be at more natural positions with two bigs, since GRIII isnot a 4 at around 6′ 7″…despite good size, especially when LeVert is at the point, I still can’t say this is a great defensive team…starting five was Walton, Stauskus, Robinson, Morgan, and Horford…would expect McGary to start over Horford when he returns…shouldn’t have a problem with full court press teams, with Walton, Spike, LeVert, and Stauskus all being solid ball-handlers…rebounding will be better, but probably still not a strength…much tougher schedule this year, so the record may not be as good but the team should be more battle-tested come Big Ten season
Facility Notes
not much new this year…but with the incredible improvements of the last few years, Crisler is now a fantastic place to watch a game…no 2013 Final Four banner hanging yet…didn’t get a chance to walk the concourse, but I’d expect a permanent Fab Five display to pop up out there at some point this year…just a remarkable transformation from the old dark, dingy, dirty place it used to be
Most important questions for the season
1) How far will the PG position regress with the loss of Burke?
Well, certainly it will be a step back, as Burke was National Player of the Year for a reason. He flat-out carried this team at times. That said, Michigan is in about as good of shape as you can be after losing someone like Burke. Spike is a solid PG and Walton is a lot like freshman Burke, who was no slouch. Neither will carry the team on his back this year like Burke could, but there is so much other talent that they may not need to. For as big of a loss as it is, it’s not crippling. Credit Beilein for great recruiting at the PG position.
2) What is the team losing with Hardaway going pro?
This is an interesting loss as well. Hardaway flat-out won a couple of games on his own last year, like the OSU game at home. But man could he disappear at times. He was certainly more consistent last year, but he was never great defensively so they may actually be better without him on the defensive end with Irvin taking some of those minutes. It’s certainly a loss not having Hardaway, but this team has a lot of talent at the 2 and 3 and can actually improve defensively. That said, Hardaway was a good FT shooter and man did he hit some big 3’s. But overall this is less of a loss than Burke is.
3) In what situation could the loss of Burke actually help the team?
It’s borderline silly saying Michigan could be better at the end of first halves and games without Burke, but it’s not a total stretch. At the end of halves with Burke, guys just stood around and let him dribble out the clock and jack up a three. Unfortunately he missed almost all of them last year, not including the season-changing epic shot against Kansas. But numerous other chances went in and out. Without Burke, I would expect more player and ball movement in these situations, with less predictable shots. I actually think this could improve the outcome of those situations when teams have to prepare for 3-4 guys taking the shot instead of just one. Would I choose this situation over having Burke? Probably not. But they just didn’t fall last year, so it’s a theory.
4) What does playing two bigs mean for this team?
Well, it should help with rebounding and puts players in more natural positions. But the team loses a little athleticism since it usually means only two of GRIII, Stauskus, Irvin, and LeVert will be on the floor (except when LeVert is at the point). The jury is out on how this will affect the team as Beilein’s system isn’t necessarily a traditional one, and this would be a more traditional roster. We’ll see if this rotation sticks or they fall back to one big at a time. I expect McGary and Morgan to start, with Horford coming off the bench for McGary. I think GRIII and Bielfeldt will each get a few minutes at the 4 when Morgan rests, meaning one big some of the time.
5) Can this be another Final Four team?
There is enough talent on this team to be a Final Four team, yes. But I feel like there is one hole that might be the achilles heel for this team in tough road environments and the NCAA tourney. When playing top talent in a tough environment and the team is struggling to score, who is the alpha dog that will just put the team on his back and carry the team to victory? I don’t know if I see that player on this team right now unless it’s McGary (with heavy help from his PGs). Trey Burke absolutely carried this team at times last year, and without that this team is not a Final Four team. Hardaway did it once or twice as well. Someone has to rise up and be That Guy at the end of close, tough games, but who is it going to be? I don’t know.
Predictions
23-7 overall (not including post-season tournaments)
10-2 in non-conference
13-5 in the Big Ten (plus 2 wins in the Big Ten tourney)
2-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, 3 tourney wins