16th Annual Abla Report
The 2014-2015 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after exhibition game against Wayne State on November 10, 2014.
By Tim Abla
2 Spike Albrecht (Jr.)
pretty much a known commodity at this point…played a typical Spike game…a few nice assists, a scrappy rebound or two, and a sneaky drive…still clearly the backup PG but perfectly comfortable with him running the point
3 Kameron Chatman (Fr.)
started…lefty…nice arc on shot…long arms…allowed him to make a nice entry pass over the top to LeVert…airmailed first two 3pt attempts…great up-and-under layup…nice dribble drive for a big man…nice touch on FT…grew more confident as the game went on…needs to get the hands up on defense…not a prototypical power forward maybe, but that’s where I think he fits on this team…maybe a little small forward but I don’t see him there much with this roster…certainly the freshman that will make the biggest impact offensively…could be an 8-9 ppg player…would like to see more rebounding though…nice high hair, but nothing compared to Wilson’s…could probably afford to get a little stronger
5 D.J. Wilson (Fr.)
not sure what that hair style would be called…second-most hiked-up shorts on the team…in my opinion looks to be the tallest player on the team (barely) even excluding the high hair…shot may be a little flat, but not too bad…drained a nice three from the corner…like most Beilein big men works on outside shot during warmups…long…yet managed to get a jumper blocked…missed a mildly-easy bunny with his left…can play power forward or center…like all of Michigan’s young bigs, not necessarily a quick-twitch guy…probably the best leaper of the three main big men, but that’s not saying much…reasonable strength for a freshman big…5 ppg player if he doesn’t redshirt…I’d be fine if he averaged more rebounds than points this year
10 Derrick Walton, Jr. (So.)
started…in total control of the offense…ready to make the Beilein sophomore PG leap…excellent FT shooter…one of three who could lead the team in scoring…14 ppg player…hurt his ankle or leg on a hard foul on a breakaway…had to go to the locker room briefly…came back and played thankfully…strong for a smaller guy…not flashy, but solid all the way around…has developed a solid 3pt shot…makes good decisions on the break…and can take it strong to the hole…seems to have added a little bit to the vertical
11 Andrew Dakich (So.)
DNP…won’t play much outside of blowout time
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Fr.)
for a guy rumored to need to work on his outside shot, seems to have a textbook shot…very nice release and rotation…that said, barely got rim on first 3pt attempt…looks like he can get to the hole at will…needs to work on finishing a little bit…nice FT but still needs a little work…just seems to rush it a tiny bit…redshirt candidate…if he doesn’t, I would say the fourth string PG (Walton, Albrecht, LeVert)…solid athlete…no fear getting to the basket
20 Sean Lonergan (So.)
DNP…won’t play much outside of blowout time
21 Zak Irvin (So.)
started…looks more athletic…solid leaper…great rotation on his shot…didn’t notice the odd release as much tonight…maybe I’m just used to it, or maybe it’s improved a little…dribbled more tonight than all of last year combined…3pt assassin…actually dribbled in for a mid-range jumper once…made a not-so-wise pass on a fast break…brought the ball up court once or twice off rebounds…don’t remember that ever happening last year…looks a lot more confident with the ball in his hands…had a couple of tough rebounds as well…shoulders are so wide, looks like he’s wearing shoulder pads…another guy who could lead the team in scoring…I’ll say he finishes behind Walton and LeVert though…has the potential to be a solid defender…doesn’t get to the line much…but certainly will more than last year
22 Duncan Robinson (So.)
has to redshirt after his transfer…tall and very thin…hopefully spends the year putting on a little weight…looks like he could get a 3pt shot off over anyone though
23 Caris LeVert (Jr.)
started…nice height on his shot…gets his shot off so easily in the lane…looks confident…showed the wicked crossover which left his man in the dust…can’t really defend him with a shorter guy…such long arms…third string PG when Walton and Spike are out…covers so much ground with every step…opposite of Irvin’s shoulders…seems like he should be a better defender than he is…he or Walton will lead the team in scoring…15ppg player…would like to see the rebounds go up…strong FT shooter…he or Walton will lead the team in FT attempts as well…feels like the game has slowed down for him more than the past two years
24 Aubrey Dawkins (Fr.)
can’t pull his shorts up any higher…nice leaping ability…fairly nice shot as well…no doubt whose son he is…first wing off the bench…not bad ball-handling skills…but I don’t think they’d want him playing PG…looks like a poor man’s GRIII in body size and leaping ability…pretty close though…hopefully is more aggressive than GRIII…also played with more confidence as the game went along…looks like he could be a solid defender…unless he’s stuck playing guys much bigger than him…shouldn’t have to play the 4 on this team like GRIII did though…good FT, as you would expect
30 Austin Hatch (Fr.)
got in the game’s final minute or two…standing O for him was the best moment of the night…got fouled…missed the first and made the next…as much as I’d like him to be a part of the rotation, in my opinion it looks like his body is just slow at this point…saddens me to say, but I think his athletic career is generally over…if you’re unfamiliar with why, google his story at some point…and then root like crazy for him
32 Ricky Doyle (Fr.)
was hoping he would be about two inches taller…hard to tell if he or Chatman is tallest, I think Chatman barely…not what I’d call a quick twitch athlete…have to wait and see how good his hands are…very strong…had a nice tough rebound and putback…rare Beilein big who doesn’t work on 3pt shot in warmups…definitely a center…long arms…didn’t see the face-up game I was hoping to see…hard worker on defense…not a gifted athlete, but not bad either…also have to wait and see how quick he can be defensively…definitely has good size for a freshman…will get a lot of playing time…but probably only a 5 ppg player…needs to get the defensive rebounds…will be the token big guy who can draw charges…wouldn’t feel good to run into him…kind of a brick wall…better leaper than Donnal…will definitely average more rebounds than points
34 Mark Donnal (Redshirt Fr.)
started…not much of a leaper…strong like Doyle…needs to get off the floor more for rebounds…seems like the worst leaper of the three main bigs…have yet to see the skills matching what I read last year during his redshirt season…hard worker on defense…doesn’t look comfortable on offense yet…but is comfortable taking 3pt shots…gives up frustrating defensive rebounds…extended a possession or two with nice tip-outs to the guards McGary-style…liked his court awareness in that respect…comparable in height to Doyle and Wilson…probably an inch shorter at most…while he started, I don’t think he’ll get many more minutes than the other bigs…could lose his starting position to Doyle at some point…managed to win the opening tap despite the lack of ups
44 Max Bielfeldt (Sr.)
one of two not wearing calf sleeves (Dakich)…not sure they could find any that fit his massive calves…made some nice plays on both ends tonight…that I suspect he wouldn’t be able to make against better teams…looked like a leader on the court with all the new guys around…but clearly the fourth center…and probably won’t get much PT outside of nights with foul trouble or needing to send a message…can’t leap worth a darn…and a few inches too short to rebound inside…but strong like bull…and unafraid to take shots…not sure that’s a good thing…won’t get much PT
Miscellaneous Team Notes
WE WILL…seems to be a team of low-key individuals…no high-energy McGary’s on this squad…expect the defense to be a bit weak early in the season with this many first year players…deep roster…Donnal, Doyle, and Wilson may be interchangeable, may get about the same PT…Wilson can play the 4 or 5, maybe Donnal as well, but Doyle is a definite 5…expect some frustrating nights on the interior when your top three are all first year players…especially defensive rebounding…that said the three bigs have good size, although all could use another inch or two of height…looks like they’re all around 6′ 9″ or 6′ 10″…team seemed to have the worst warmup shooting night ever…I like that all the layup drills were done with left hands (from either side of the hoop)…one drill looked like it was an out-of-bounds pass to the interior, where they worked on finishing…mostly played just one of Donnal, Doyle, or Wilson at a time…but late they had Doyle and Wilson in at the same time when Wilson came in for Chatman at the 4…nice height when the two were together…team is a bit different…six first-year players could be in the rotation…team continues to feel like they get a little taller every year…except at the point…a lot of guys can finish well on fast breaks…but the bigs can’t as well as previous years (Morgan and McGary)…they can’t get down the court like either of those guys either…these three are built more like Horford, but better offensively than Horford and more athletic…maybe not as tall as Horford
Facility Notes
nothing really new this year…except the Big Ten Champs banner being raised on Saturday 🙂
Most important questions for the season
1) What is the strength of this team?
No doubt it is the big three of Walton, LeVert, and Irvin. Those three guys form a very solid core for any team. All can score, all can shoot well from outside, and all compliment each other well. They all play different positions and therefore can be on the court at the same time without complications. The backcourt will be in extremely good shape this year barring injuries, and that can carry a team a long way in college.
2) What is the biggest weakness of this team?
A sly observer (and most not-so-sly observers) will have noticed at this point that the big men are all quite young. The top four big men (Donnal, Doyle, Wilson, and Chatman) have a combined games played of zero. There is immediate depth with those four (and Bielfeldt if necessary), but none are going to be stars this year with the potential exception of Chatman. But he’s a 4, not a 5. How well this team handles other teams’ bigs defensively, including rebounding, will have a big say in how successful this team can be. The three main bigs are all strong, unlike some of the twigs we’ve had in the past, but none are great leapers. There are definite concerns defensively here, and I wouldn’t expect too much offensively out of them either. Chatman looks like he can score at least.
3) Can Caris live up to expectations?
I’ve heard so much hype surrounding him, I was mentally prepared to answer ‘no he can’t.’ Then I watched him tonight, and I just felt like he’s in control and still so athletic. I now think he can match the hype. There is a lot of it, yes, but this is college not the NBA. There are a select few guys in college who can guard a lengthy-but-quick guy like LeVert. And the team has enough talent around him that teams can’t just focus on LeVert. Now without Stauskas maybe he’ll get other teams’ best defenders, so that could present issues, but he’s not a typical player when it comes to defending him. Guys who could handle Stauskas (which there weren’t many) may not be able to handle LeVert. That’s not saying he’s better than Stauskas (I don’t believe he is), but he’s just…different. In an oddly physical way. He’s extremely long and extremely quick and his body bends in weird ways. All-in-all I think he lives up to expectations.
4) Can this team challenge for banners with this many first year players?
I have to say ‘no’ on this one. I think this team will be in the upper echelon in the Big Ten, but ultimately it won’t be able to win it. I don’t think there are powerhouses in the league outside of Wisconsin, but certain deficiencies will prevent the team from earning another banner. Mainly you don’t win with all of your bigs being first year players. Not to mention six first year players overall, with none of them being total superstars.
5) How deep will the rotation go this year (aka will any of the first-years redshirt)?
This team could legitimately go 10 deep (Walton, LeVert, Irvin, Donnal, Chatman starting, Doyle, Dawkins, Wilson, Spike, Abdur-Rahkman off the bench). But we know Beilein likes to shorten the rotation. We know the only candidates to redshirt are Wilson, Dawkins, and Abdur-Rahkman. Despite earlier rumors of it, I don’t believe the team can afford to redshirt Wilson, I think they need his size. Dawkins seemed to be the first wing off the bench. I don’t think he gets a ton of playing time, but he still won’t redshirt. The main candidate to redshirt therefore is Abdur-Rahkman. Not because he isn’t skilled enough to play, it’s just that there is depth at his position, and quality depth at that. They just don’t need him this year. If anyone redshirts it’s him, but even that I’m not sure of since he’s already old for a first-year player. I didn’t even count Beilfeldt, who will get occasional minutes. That would put them at 11 deep if nobody redshirts. But you don’t truly go 11 deep in games.
Predictions
19-11 overall (not including post-season tournaments)
8-4 in non-conference
11-7 in the Big Ten (plus one win in the Big Ten tourney)
7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, one tourney win