17th Annual Abla Report
The 2015-2016 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after game against Northern Michigan on November 13, 2015.
By Tim Abla
0 Brent Hibbitts (Fr.)
did not play, will not play (DNP/WNP)…pretty big body for a walk-on…should provide a pretty good practice opponent with that size
2 Spike Albrecht (Sr.)
one of my all-time favorites…can’t think of any former Wolverines who have exceeded career expectations as much as he has…I suppose Trey Burke could argue with that…but even he had higher expectations…looks to me like he’s still affected by his offseason surgery a tiny bit…mainly in his (already-minor) ability to get off the floor…could actually lose a few minutes this year if his recovery lingers…not likely though…had two consecutive sweet steals during the second half…Spike still gonna Spike I guess…so deft around the rim for a 6-footer with no major ups…amazing passer…goes to the no-look a lot…yet completes all of them…8 ppg player…perfectly capable at the PG position…yet works great on the floor along side Walton…can be exposed defensively by taller guards…great at getting steals though…good FT shooter…gets some of the sneakieset rebounds ever…lulls guys to sleep before driving right by them…has mastered the “hang in the air until he can hook a pass around the defender to an open big guy heading to the rim” pass
3 Kameron Chatman (So.)
reduced expectations after last season…looked more comfortable tonight though…very active heading to the rim and looking for passes…finished nicely around the rim…plays better when he’s cutting to the basket…reduced expectations should help him relax hopefully…likely coming off the bench this year, unlike last year…can be a matchup problem for other teams…still makes silly mistakes at times though…while he’s not going to be a star this year, I tend to think he’s going to surprise a little bit…looked like Beilein had him more active this year…won’t get as many minutes though barring injuries…just needs the game to slow down a little and reduce the poor decisions…has a nice looking shot…gets his shot off well…one of those guys who puts a lot of spin on the ball when laying it in…which causes them to grab the rim and roll out sometimes…not the strongest defensive player…very nice outlet passer…helps get the fast break going quite well…7 ppg player…grabs the occasional tough rebound in traffic…could use more rebounding from him though…is a guy who could raise the ceiling of this team if he can make a sophomore leap
5 D.J. Wilson (Redshirt Fr.)
Wilson was the player who looked most improved physically to me…really got up for the ball several times…high-pointed some rebounds nicely…looks quicker and stronger…last year I felt his leaping ability was overrated…not this year, he got up high for the ball…still not a banger-type body…relies more on quickness…actually hit his only 3-pt attempt…had some nice attempts near the paint…missed both of them…he and Wagner appear to be tallest on the team, along with Doyle maybe…will get significant minutes this year…could start, probably won’t consistently though…one of the first guys coming off the bench probably…not a great offensive big man…but improved over his pre-injury time last year…the hair makes it difficult to judge his height…played for a brief time with Donnal, and a brief time with Doyle…but mostly as the only big on the floor though…as is usually the case with Beilein…could still use a little more strength come Big Ten season…but certainly more ready than last year…certainly our most athletic big man…6 ppg player
10 Derrick Walton, Jr. (Jr.)
looked much healthier than last year…never was healthy last season…will be a nice floor leader for this team…doesn’t need to carry the team…but will at times…good FT shooter…inconsistent 3-pt shooter…looks like he can jump again…never feels out of control…not flashy, just steady…reasonable defender, not elite…will get his points but won’t lead the team…12-14 ppg player…gets some really tough rebounds in traffic…tough in road environments…not a top shooter…but fully capable of hitting 3’s…can get his shot off fairly well in the paint…strong at drawing fouls and still getting a shot off…maybe our best player at crunch time…good fast break finisher…absolutely fantastic rebounder for a 6-foot guard
11 Andrew Dakich (Jr.)
DNP…won’t play outside of blowout time
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (So.)
not a starter on this team…but a quality player…minutes will be more limited because of depth…but I think he’ll get more minutes than those in the know are saying…strong defensively…that alone could earn him minutes during some games…especially if Spike is being targeted defensively…probably our best player at getting to the rim…makes a lot of tough shots in the paint…has a unique skillset on this team…has decent length, which helps defensively…will have to battle for minutes…love how focused he is on what the coaches are saying during timeouts…next year should have a significant role…will save this team in a couple of games this year…6 ppg player
13 Moritz Wagner (Fr.)
played despite rumors that he will redshirt…I think perhaps in CBB you can redshirt even if you’ve played a couple of games(?)…very intriguing player in my opinion…very long arms, long body, long legs…long legs mean long strides…has lots of swagger…could use some weight and strength…will get pushed around in the Big Ten if he plays during the conference season…needs an offseason of weight and strength gains…has a bit more of an offensive skillset than other bigs on the team…had a really nice tip-in in traffic…got pushed around a little by NMU’s big guy (who was pretty, uh, hefty)…you can see why Beilein wanted him…has a great skillset for coach Beilein…played center but feels like a tall 4 to me…Beilein hardly ever seems to go with two bigs though…too lanky to play center in the Big Ten right now…somehow couldn’t take my eyes off him when he was moving around…such long strides and long arms
20 Sean Lonergan (Jr.)
DNP…won’t play outside of blowout time
21 Zak Irvin (Jr.)
DNP – injured…should be back soon I think…one of the keys to this team…more on Irvin below
22 Duncan Robinson (Redshirt So.)
absolute textbook spin on his shot…really pretty shot…could use a little more weight and strength as well…as evidenced by his shot being stuffed by a shorter guy in traffic…I think he is the guy who is not going to get minutes this year because of depth…may get decent minutes in some games…but limited minutes in the majority of games…just too much depth at his position…could surprise like Dawkins did last year though…wasn’t terribly active tonight…certainly a nice spare part when you need a 3-pt specialist…needs to expand the rest of his game though to maximize his 3-pt effectiveness
23 Caris LeVert (Sr.)
looked back to being Caris…so quick…so lanky…such a crazy good crossover…streakiest of streaky 3-pt shooters…never been a fan of his outside shot…but always seems to exceed expectations there…will lead the team in scoring…15-17 ppg player…never lived up to my expectations defensively…very good at creating when the shot clock is winding down…doesn’t lack in confidence with the ball in his hand…could be a PG in a pinch…needs to avoid forcing shots…gets shots off that just don’t seem possible…tough defensive matchup because he can shoot over you or drive around you…will garner the most defensive gameplanning by opposing teams…when nobody else can score in a game, Caris can…with his shot may have a stinker game or two…but will blow up more often than he has downer games…good FT shooter…could use a few more rebounds from him
24 Aubrey Dawkins (So.)
looks like he belongs now…full of confidence this year…without any signs of cockiness…can absolutely fly…had three highlight dunks tonight…one off an alley-oop from Walton…best was a left-handed rebound dunk after soaring through the air…that was an extremely athletic play…especially the lefty part…great 3-pt shooter from the corners…built pretty well…was an afterthought as a recruit…but may be a star soon…one of our best 3-pt shooters…but can finish around the rim nicely…not great at putting the ball on the floor…more of a spot-up shooter…will have a few games of 5+ triples…solid rebounder…9 ppg player…should start…may play some 4…will be undersized at that position, like Irvin if he’s at the 4…but that’s a traditional Beilein 4…maybe the most exciting player on the team…certainly has the most highlight dunks…gets his 3-pt shot off so well…will carry the team offensively at times
32 Ricky Doyle (So.)
I think he’ll eventually be the starter…certainly the biggest body of our bigs…extremely strong…hustler…not the most talented, but works so hard…exceeded expectations early last year, tapered off a little during the season…needs to avoid foul trouble…one of those guys so big and strong, gets ticky-tack fouls because guys bounce off of him…sure wish he had a little more vertical leap…earns everything he gets…leads the team in sweat…built for Big Ten basketball…reasonable skill on the offensive end…needs to use his size and strength more effectively in reboudning situations…fan favorite because of his hustle…not afraid to risk his body going after loose balls…extends possessions well by tipping the ball back to teammates…misses a lot of easy bunnies somehow…foul trouble will be what limits his minutes…8 ppg player
34 Mark Donnal (Jr.)
started…reclassified to a junior instead of a redshirt sophomore this offseason…can’t be a good sign for him…noticed he is a good two inches shorter than Wagner and Wilson when standing in the national anthem line…means he’s 6′ 8″ tops…which could explain some of his interior difficulties…doesn’t have any vertical leap, so of course he’s going to struggle when playing the five…seems like a four, but they play him at center mostly…tough time rebounding inside…I don’t see him starting for long…if he starts, still won’t get starter minutes…did play on the floor at the same time as Wilson some…just feels overmatched physically sometimes…has a nice shot…but too short to get it off sometimes…occasionally makes a play where you see the talent…but mostly just disappears during games…6 ppg player
Miscellaneous Team Notes
maybe the deepest team Michigan has ever had…can handle some foul trouble with this depth…Doyle’s big body may be the one thing nobody else can replace on this team…yet he’s the most foul-prone…feels like another frustrating rebounding team…especially with undersized players at the 4…but there is talent there so you have to get them on the floor…some high-quality FT shooters (Walton, LeVert, Irvin, Dawkins, and Spike)…yet they have a frustrating amount of misses as well…a lot of talent on this team…and even more experience…finally feels like it should be one of the most experienced teams around…some guys aren’t going to get the minutes they want…but it may change from game to game…should be ok defensively…and pretty strong offensively…can’t just rely on the outside shot though…solid 3-pt shooting team…maybe not quite elite…still capable of puzzling offensive droughts at times…should be able to hang with almost anyone…lots of different skillsets for Beilein to tinker with…will be interseting to see how the minutes get divided up this year…looking at the sum of the players, I feel as if this team is being underrated…by Big Ten season I expect that will be corrected
Facility Notes
not much to note other than the scoreboard TV seemed to be easier to read in terms of in-game team stats (score, timeouts, fouls, etc.)
Most important questions for the season
1) What is the non-big rotation?
Man, there is a lot of talent on this team at the 1-4 positions. Your starters should be Walton, Caris, Irvin, and Dawkins. That is also a lot of skillset overlap, especially between Dawkins and Irvin. But man that is a lot of talent, scoring ability, and maybe most importantly a lot of experience. That is a great starting four in college basketball. Maybe not the pros, but in college basketball that is tough to top.Beyond those guys, I expect Spike to play a ton, Chatman to play a fair amount, MAAR to get some minutes, and Robinson to only get a handful. If Beilein shortens the rotation Robinson will lose out and then MAAR.
2) What is the bigs rotation?
I expect Doyle will start with Wilson being the first sub in. Yet Donnal always seems to get significant minutes, so keep that in mind. I believe Wagner will still redshirt this year. I think Doyle will get 20+ minutes a game at center, with Wilson getting 10 there and some at the 4. Donnal will get the other 10 minutes, and a few at the four as well. For the most part Beilein will continue playing just one traditional big man, but he showed flashes of two bigs a couple of times tonight. I’ll believe it’s a consistent thing when I see it.
3) What is up with those shorts?
Did a motorcycle drive over the garment bags or something? Those things are hideous. But I think adidas has a strategy there, and that strategy is that they’re so ugly you can’t take your eyes off of them. Other teams will be busy mocking our shorts, forgetting that they’re supposed to be defending us. Although the tire tracks are in a poor area to keep your eyes on, so there’s a real conflict in your head. Needless to say, they’re awful and whoever designed them should be fired.
4) Who is the x-factor this season?
In my opinion it’s Zak Irvin. In the second half of last season he made a leap that we had previously not seen. He retained his excellent outside stroke but became quite effective at getting to the basket for a bucket and maybe a foul. It was a new dimension from him, a very effective one, and that dimension when combined with the rest of the talent on this team could put this team up at the top of the Big Ten. However, he’s coming off of an offseason injury and possibly surgery (I don’t recall), so there’s a tiny bit of doubt heading into this season. Which makes him all the more the x-factor.
Predictions
24-7 overall (not including post-season tournaments)
11-2 in non-conference
13-5 in the Big Ten (plus two wins in the Big Ten tourney)
4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, 3 tourney wins