18th Annual Abla Report
The 2016-2017 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after game against Howard on November 11, 2016.
By Tim Abla
0 Brent Hibbitts (So.)
only played for the last minute…won’t play outside of scrub time
1 Charles Matthews (So.)
did not play (DNP)…will not play (WNP)
3 Xavier Simpson (Fr.)
shorter than Walton…well-built for his size though…seemed to have a nice handle…release of his outside shot is a tiny bit low…could lead to some block here or there…had a really nice finish in traffic…didn’t see him hit very many threes in warmups…looked like he belonged…wasn’t lost defensively…quick
5 D.J. Wilson (Redshirt So.)
slow start…explosive second half…difference-maker when he was on the court…made numerous plays around the rim…very good athlete for a big man…can really run on the fast break…also when hustling back on defense…rocked some pretty short shorts…has put on a lot of muscle…still can sky though…our most athletic big man…even got to the line a few times…was our best player at the 4…saw a lot of time with a second big…first sub off the bench…could end up starting over Robinson…still not crazy about him shooting threes…was really impressive tonight…certainly could help elevate this team to some higher expectations…had a sweet rebound dunk…followed it up with a nice block…high energy guy…taller than people think…even with taking the high hair into account…9ppg…got up high for a lot of nice rebounds…pretty good offensive rebounder
10 Derrick Walton, Jr. (Sr.)
started…the clear leader of this team…shot well after a slow start…will probably lead the team in scoring…14 ppg…needs to make much better decisions on the fast break…too often gets sloppy with the ball…too many bad turnovers last year…such a great rebounder for a smaller guy…team’s most reliable FT shooter…probably its second best 3-pt shooter…needs to stay healthy…needs to go to the hole a little more…although gets a lot of shot blocks down low…played the 2 spot when Xavier was on the floor with him…otherwise PG
11 Andrew Dakich (Sr.)
DNP…will play when Walton and/or Xavier get in foul trouble…hopefully not too often…comic relief on the sidelines…looks like a fun guy to be around
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Jr.)
started…the one guy who can get to the basket consistently on his own…our best shot creator…started hot…then missed everything else…decent defender…needs to get to the line…could average double digits in scoring…one of the vets at this point…this is the guy who will rescue this team when nobody else can hit a shot…disappears at times though
13 Moritz Wagner (So.)
started…tall with long arms means great length…didn’t do much offensively tonight…certainly will be more involved than he was tonight…didn’t show his patented big man driving skills…another high energy guy…nice high FT…gets lost sometimes on defense…had a nice block…good athlete for a big man…a little thicker than last year…but will never be considered thick…team’s biggest cheerleader…great attitude…want to see him become a better rebounder…has to stay out of foul trouble better…8ppg
14 Fred Wright-Jones (So.)
played one minute…very similiar size and build to Xavier…won’t play other than scrub time
15 Jon Teske (Fr.)
burned his redshirt at the end…probably won’t play much…big drop-off in top three bigs to this freshman…looks like a legit 7-footer…didn’t do much in warmups or the game…so not much info on him…got lost defensively once…won’t get a lot of minutes in bigger games
20 Sean Lonergan (Sr.)
played a couple of minutes…won’t play much in bigger games…had a bad turnover/foul sequence
21 Zak Irvin (Sr.)
started…had a poor first half…too stagnant…just threw up shots…much better in the second half…was way more aggressive…at his best when he is moving around with and without the ball…seems to have lost his 3-pt shot from earlier in his career…no longer want him shooting very many threes…like him more when he’s slashing…great athlete…could lead the team in scoring if his shot improves…often has to play D against bigger guys…can get some tough rebounds…still has the same ugly shot where he brings the ball across his face…needs to stay healthy…could challenge Walton for team scoring leader…also around 14ppg…can be a solid defender at times…would like to see more of it…you can see his energy level and quality of play go up when he starts playing more aggressive
22 Duncan Robinson (Redshirt Jr.)
started…didn’t shoot very well…needs to shoot better to be useful…good length…pretty skinny still…had a really nice drive and dish for a hoop…kind of a liability defensively…could lose his starting position to Wilson…has such a pretty stroke…perfect rotation on his shot…seems to drain everything in warmups…sometimes in games as well
23 Ibi Watson (Fr.)
played sparingly…must go to the same barber as Wilson…not as skinny as I thought he would be…didn’t do much of anything…no real info on him…looked like a freshman, just passing the ball as soon as he got it
34 Mark Donnal (Sr.)
one of the first guys off the bench…had a sneaky good year last year…still glued to the floor…not a great rebounder…really seems out of position when he’s the only big on the floor…much better when he is on the floor with another big so he can play the 4…improved so much last year…had a nice block…just can’t hang with the big boys…would be surprised if he’s over 6′ 8″, maybe 6′ 9″…and can’t leap…seems super quiet…never have seen him say anything…valuable piece for depth…certainly one of the main three bigs
51 Austin Davis (Fr.)
DNP…will probably redshirt…doesn’t look as tall as his listed height…I would guess 6′ 9″ tops…wide shoulders…mostly just rebounded for others in warmups so no major info on him…decent build
Miscellaneous Team Notes
didn’t score for the first 5+ minutes…seemed to just jack of long shots during that time…lacking in guys who can get to the hole…probably won’t shoot a high number of FTs…seemed at their best when there were two bigs on the floor…best rotation had Wilson and Wagner in at the same time…with those guys together, that is a lot of athleticism for other bigs to handle…both high energy guys too…Donnal played better when sharing time with another big…jerseys were nice, but names and numbers on the backs seemed a little too wedged up high…not a terribly good rebounding team (as usual)…definitely seemed more foul prone…guys still seemed to sit when they got two fouls in the first half…Beilein still doesn’t like taking timeouts in games like this…I don’t think the rotation will be very deep in bigger games…this team is at its worst when just jacking up threes…at its best when rotating, slashing, moving with and without the ball…defense seemed a little more aggressive…but I still don’t expect this to be a great defensive team…kind of a lackluster performance tonight
Coaching Notes
didn’t notice a lot from the new guys…Donlon seems more active on the bench than Washington…Beilein seemed a little more vocal with the guys when they made mistakes…at least with the veterans
Most important questions for the season
1) What is the team’s best rotation?
Despite the fact that Robinson starts, I feel right now the team is at its best with Wilson on the floor. When Wilson and Wagner are on the floor together it makes for a tough matchup for other teams’ bigs. Add Walton, Irvin, and Abdur-Rahkman to the lineup and that’s a decent lineup. There just isn’t a ton of depth behind them.
2) Who else behind those five will get major minutes?
I think come Big Ten play the rotation will get slimmed down to just Robinson, Simpson, and Donnal. Sure, Watson and Teske may get a few minutes here and there, but for the most part it’s going to be an eight-man rotation.
3) Is this a classic Beilein team?
I don’t think so. I don’t think it’s as good at shooting the three as past teams, and I think there may be a lot more length on the floor than previous teams. He played two bigs most of the time tonight, and I thought it was clear that the team was better when two bigs were on the floor. Classic Beilein teams at Michigan never had two true bigs on the floor. I think the super high offensive output teams are a thing of the past, but the team should be better defensively and better at rebounding. How much so remains to be seen.
4) Will Billy Donlon be able to make a difference defensively?
I just don’t see a ton of defensive improvement coming this season. Some of these guys are what they are — average defensive players. Given that Beilein seems to be adjusing his style a little bit I wouldn’t be surprised if a more defensive player or two were brought into the program over the next year or two. That never seemed to be a focus in recruiting before, but if we want to play better defense that will have to be a consideration.
Predictions
Going conservative this year, one of the tougher non-conference schedules we’ve had lately.
18-13 overall (not including post-season tournaments)
8-5 in non-conference
10-8 in the Big Ten (plus 1 win in the Big Ten tourney)
11-12 seed in the NCAA Tournament, quite possibly NIT, 0 NCAA tourney wins unless they’re in a play-in game again