19th Annual Abla Report
The 2017-2018 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after game against Central Michigan on November 13, 2017.
By Tim Abla
0 Brent Hibbitts (Jr.)
Did Not Play (DNP)…Will Not Play (WNP)
1 Charles Matthews (Jr.)
starter…hit every shot I saw him take in warmups…then missed most of them during the game…didn’t have a game to write home about tonight…spent the first half chucking up shots from 3-pt range…got a little more
aggressive in the second half…which looked a lot better than the first half…like many players with that type of game, way better when aggressive…has exceptional vertical leap…nicest play was drive to the basket
where he stopped on a dime and pulled up for a short jumper way above everyone else…gave himself a nice, clean, close look on that play instead of forcing a contested layup…seemed to need to reassure himself
after jumpers finally started falling…knocked the ball away a few times on the defensive end…build is a little slight maybe but not too bad…I think he’ll score a lot of points…but it might take more shots
than desirable to get there…concerned about the shooting percentage here…still, will be a solid 13-15 PPG player…I’m assuming he was the wing while Robinson was the 4, but hard to tell…got up for a couple of
nice rebounds
2 Jordan Poole (Fr.)
DNP…I would lean towards a redshirt here…good height for a guard…I’ll say this, pretty good lip-syncher to some hip-hop songs…so we have that going for us…which is good
3 Zavier Simpson (So.)
starter…pretty interesting player in my opinion…looks like the most comfortable PG on the team…broad-shouldered and strong for a PG…solid defender…willing to be more aggressive this year…
weak first half last year…promising second half showed many small flashes of goodness…needs to show that more consistently now that he’s the lead PG…will never be a great outside shooter…
but strong in the lane…just not quite the height or leaps to avoid the occasional blocked layup attempt…seems to catch people off guard with his ability to drive sometimes…possibly because it’s less
frequent than other PGs might do it…10 PPG player…not a classic shot rotation by any means…release is a little low as well…could lead to the occasional blocked 3-pt attempt…I think he will be a
pleasant surprise this year…never going to be Walton or Burke but a solid step up from the second half of year one is acceptable
4 Isaiah Livers (Fr.)
second man in off the bench…decent bulk…but not quite as tall as you’d hope for if he’s a 4…played a handful of minutes…but clearly just to give other guys a rest and that’s it…not expecting much this
year if he stays in the rotation at all…perhaps passed Ibi Watson though
5 Jaaron Simmons (Sr. – Grad Student)
looks like a natural PG…strong build like Zavier…best ball-handler on the team…shot is slow due to a long swooping motion…has a hitch in it on the way up as well…thought slow shot might lead to being blocked…
and it did on a second-half 3-pt shot…nice passer…got to the basket a time or two…he should be an asset once he’s a little more comfortable with the offensive system…another PG that won’t be a consistent
outside weapon though…will get solid minutes as the backup PG…could even start a few games if Zavier struggles…nice to add a veteran like this…not tall…8 PPG player…need to see more to comment on defense…
first guy off the bench tonight
11 Luke Wilson (Fr.)
DNP/WNP
12 Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Sr.)
starter…needs to be one of the leaders of this team…has a unique skill-set…often brought the ball up the court even when a true PG was on the floor…can play PG if necessary…most capable of getting to the
hole and scoring on this team…longer than the other guys who can get to the hole…has that knack of getting a shot off amongst the trees near the rim…adequate defender but I always feel like he could get
stronger defensively…reliable 3-pt shooter…candidate for leading the team in scoring…solid career will hopefully end with a strong senior campaign…the one guy who can get you a basket on his own when nothing
else is working…unless Matthews shows he can do it as well…good on the fast break…does the occasional disappearing act but usually pretty consistent…13 PPG player
13 Moritz Wagner (Jr.)
starter…clearly the most talented big man on the team…by a mile…and the only one I’ve seen who can shoot from outside…haven’t seen his mostly-effective dribble drive yet…great offensive game…iffy defender
and rebounder…probably the only big who will come close to double digit scoring average…could lead the team in scoring…but I have this nagging feeling this year could be more difficult without D. J. Wilson around…
13-15 PPG player…sometimes has lengthy stretches where he disappears though…needs to become a consistent rebounder against the tougher competition…emotional leader of the team…
always looks like a fun teammate…and a good teammate…
seems to have plenty of good dialog with the coaches during timeouts…pretty good handle for a big guy…wish he had a little more vertical leap…but a guy most teams would love to have…nice FT…needs it to be
consistent as he’ll get to the line…needs to continue to eliminate the dumb fouls…crafty for a big man…love the poke-away move he has defensively…but leads to a lot of foul calls even when it was clean
15 Jon Teske (So.)
in my mind had the most surprisingly good game of the night…defense was extremely encouraging…had several blocks, including three in about 30 seconds of game time…last one called for a foul but could have been legal…
good foot movement as well…really enjoyed his game tonight…appeared to be a solid backup at the 5…seemed to be able to find an open spot inside the elbow consistently…which is a good spot for a big man jumper…
not sure he made any though…but I’ll take that shot from a guy that size if he can start hitting them…some nice passes as well…just felt leaps and bounds above the freshman version of himself…needs to disrupt
more consistently though…this was a great start in my opinion…pretty nice FT touch…won’t be an offensive juggernaut but I’ll take 6-7 PPG…as long as he can rebound…exceeded my expectations more than anyone tonight…
want to see it again (and again)
22 Duncan Robinson (Redshirt Sr.)
starter…well, hopefully most games will go better than this one…tons of missed 3-pt shots…and some poor fouls…clearly has a better shot than he showed tonight…can change games with his shooting…
in either direction apparently…never going to be a great defender…has a classic stroke with great rotation…pretty good at the side-step three when guys are flying at him…if he’s at the 4 we’re going to need
some help rebounding…can be such a weapon at times…but also can be neutralized with tough, aggressive defenders that don’t give him space…no Stauskas but has the occasional dribble-drive…just to keep people
(barely) honest…12 PPG player
23 Ibi Watson (So.)
barely played…in danger of being passed up by the younger guys like Livers…just haven’t seen much from him in his two years…nothing to report on here
24 C. J. Baird (Fr.)
DNP/WNP
25 Naji Ozeir (Fr.)
DNP/WNP
51 Austin Davis (Redshirt Fr.)
DNP…surprised that he didn’t play…maybe the guy I most wanted to see play besides Matthews…if any big besides Wagner should take outside shots it would be him based on warmups…expect him to be in the
rotation…not sure why he wasn’t tonight
55 Eli Brooks (Fr.)
played a few minutes in the first half…may be a candidate for a redshirt…not enough PT to really comment on much…wasn’t overwhelmed with his quickness but I need to see more to be sure…taller than Zavier and Simmons…if they’re ok with Rahkman playing PG in a pinch, I’d strongly consider a redshirt
Miscellaneous Team Notes
man, I can’t shake the feeling we’ll have trouble scoring this year…here’s hoping the Beilein system works its magic again with this year…not sure we’ll be great at getting to the line this year…I dread we’re back to the undersized 4 who gets abused when it comes to rebounding…three clear vets (Rahkman, Wagner, Robinson)…everyone else feels young…gives me the “young team again” feeling…wildcards are Simpson (can he be a plus PG), Teske (can he own the defensive end and keep people honest at the other end when Wagner is on the bench), and Matthews (will get his points, but will it be efficient or on way too many shots)…
ceiling is probably third in the Big Ten…floor could be 8-9 in the B1G…expect in the 5-6 range…tough non-conference schedule for this team…feels like a team that will suffer from long scoring droughts…at its best when not just settling for 3-pt shots…those have to come in the flow of the offense, not just stand-around-and-chuck-it ball…tough to say how this team will do at the line since there were barely any FTs tonight…this team’s NCAA tourney chances may hinge on them winning 1-2 of the big non-conference games…will be tough though if they lose them all
Coaching Notes
only two things to note…first, saw Saddi Washington call something out to the players on the court for the first time ever…usually seems like a quieter observing type while the other coaches yell directions…and two,
I always feel better when I look over and see Beilein on our bench…for so many reasons
Most important questions for the season
1) Who’s the bigger loss — Derrick Walton or D. J. Wilson?
First let’s remind ourselves of how things went with Walton. Solid but not spectacular first three-and-a-half years. Nobody would claim he’s an NBA
player at that point, but a decent college player. Started out solid, never really raised his game a ton after his freshman year (although dealt with some injuries that may have contributed to that). And then…in the
course of three or so months played himself into a top college player, absolutely elite at the college level, enough so that he made an NBA roster this season. It was a remarkable close to a career. And yet…I think
Wilson might be the bigger loss this season. Both were great — GREAT — college players (by the end). But to me the bigger drop-off between those two guys and the guys on this roster comes at the big level, not the PG.
And nobody on the team (certainly besides Wagner) has anything close to the Wilson skillset. None of the other bigs have anywhere near the athleticism of Wilson, nor can they influence a game like he could at times. The
PG position, while not the same as with Walton (especially from long range), will be acceptable and maybe a little more. The 4 position? Eh…I’m pretty worried about that. Going from an NBA player to this year’s 4
could be a pretty big problem for this team.
2) Who can and should have the ball in his hands with five seconds left on the shot clock and nothing going on?
To me this is an easy one — Rahkman, with Matthews a close second. If Matthews shows more, which I
think he can, that would be two guys who can create when nothing is there. That makes a huge difference, especially for a team I expect to struggle to score. There are going to be plenty of times when somebody has to
do some dirty work to get this team some points, and I expect these two guys to be the main ones who can do that. Dark horse candidate here — Zavier Simpson. I think he could surprise people a little in this department.
The rest of the team feels like it’s waiting for someone else to do the dirty work in a crunch.
3) What is this team better at than its opponents?
Man, I struggled with this nagging thought during the whole game. I could only come up with one answer — Beilein just knows how to make the team better than the talent that’s on it. He’s going to have to do some serious coaching this year, as there are a lot of young guys on the team. And the roster doesn’t feel like it’s filled with a ton of guys other teams would want *as they are this year* (e.g. freshman Eli Brooks isn’t someone people are clamoring for — senior Eli Brooks may be a different story some day). Wagner is clearly a plus player, Rahkman would also be a good piece on a lot of teams. I expect Matthews will prove to be a plus talent. Other than that? I struggle to see where this team is going to excel. Except where I mentioned above — Beilein has won me over as a guy who can exceed all of my expectations consistently.
Predictions
18-13 overall
9-4 in non-conference
9-9 in the Big Ten (plus one win in the Big Ten tourney)
11 seed in the NCAA Tournament (with one tourney win), or NIT