Note: Due to COVID restrictions this is the first Abla Report where I wasn’t able to attend in person. So unfortunately I am unable to provide the usual in-person observations from warmups, timeouts, or players who don’t play. This review was solely based on the TV broadcast.
22nd Annual Abla Report
The 2020-2021 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after game against Bowling Green on 11/25/2020.
By Tim Abla
0 Adrien Nunez (Jr.)
did not play (DNP)…really struggled last year…couldn’t stay in front of anyone on the defensive end…and didn’t hit threes (his forte)…I know he can shoot better than that though…won’t get much playing time this year…buried on this roster, a little surprised he didn’t transfer…doesn’t feel like a Big Ten player unfortunately
1 Hunter Dickinson (Fr.)
nice block with the left hand…because he is a lefty…strong passing ability…nice and tall…but not much in the way of ups…would like to see him be able to use the right hand a little more…will be too easy to defend if he doesn’t develop his right…he and Davis will get the great majority of the time at center…unless they put Johns there occasionally…maybe not overly quick…length can make up for that though…didn’t look overmatched in his first game…not a stick figure like many of Michigan’s recent bigs…will be interesting to see how the minutes trend between Dickinson and Davis throughout the season…affected some shots nicely around the rim…kind of a strange jersey number for a 7-footer…needs to finish better around the rim…missed a bunny lay-up attempt after an offensive rebound…5 PPG…seemed to grow in confidence throughout this game…a really nice lefty drive in the second half…decent FT…surpassed my expectations for his first game
2 Isaiah Livers (Sr.)
started…came in thinking he might be our best outside shooter…but then didn’t get that many looks from the outside…comfortable with the ball in his hands…second only to Mike Smith in “biggest hair” category…I think he might just beat out Wagner for leading scorer (with Brown as a darkhorse)…but needs to be more assertive than today…such a well-rounded player in all phases…really good feet on the defensive end…13-15 ppg player…looks like he’s healthy again…wasn’t quite as involved in the offense as I expected…I think that will change in future games though…isn’t shy from 3
3 Zeb Jackson (Fr.)
spelled Smith at PG…lefty…will see if he stays the backup PG or if they use Brooks at that spot…might struggle to see consistent playing time this season…good length for a PG
4 Brandon Wade (Jr.)
did not play, can’t evaluate (DNPCE)
5 Terrance Williams II (Fr.)
brought the ball up court after a rebound…a lot of freshmen who aren’t guards avoid doing that…rushed his first 3-pt attempt…good size…made a really tough rebound and put-back in the first half…a little loose with the ball in his first game…looks like an emotional player (hopefully in a good “energy guy” way but we’ll see)…might be tough for him to find consistent playing time this year…had a really nice drive and finish in garbage time…and a good tough rebound…launched a three from Ypsi though…team is too deep at his position to expect too much this season…shot selection may be an issue
12 Mike Smith (Graduate Student)
started…looks 5′ 10″, 6′ 6″ with the hair…knows when to attack the basket…looked very comfortable in the PG role…pesky on defense…nice FT…will get the bulk of the PG minutes…gets to the basket nicely for a smaller PG…got to the line very well…looked like one of the better transfers for Michigan in recent history…will be really interesting to see how he holds up against Big Ten PGs…quick release on 3-pt shots…pretty alley-oop to Livers in the second half…the best guard at driving to the hoop in traffic
14 Rico Ozuna-Harrison (Sr.)
DNPCE
15 Chaundee Brown Jr. (Sr.)
beautiful block on the defensive end…strong…best goatee in Michigan basketball history…tough to play against when he’s guarding you…kind of disappeared in the first half…then exploded from three in the second half…hit some nice threes on consecutive possessions…another really nice transfer…can really get up for tough rebounds as well…was a different player in the second half…nice FT…9 PPG player… strong spot-up 3-pt shooter…can he create?…didn’t see him dribble much…may not be part of his game
21 Franz Wagner (So.)
started…so long…needs to shoot the three much better this year…sort of a funky stroke…low release?…skeptical that he’s going to be a consistent 3-pt shooter…despite the reputation he came in with…length and activity are a weapon on defense…needs to improve hand strength when receiving passes on his way to the bucket…loses the ball on his own way too often when driving…he or Livers will lead the team in scoring…shares the same sneakiness/craftiness as his brother Mo…looks much stronger, bulkier this year…comfortable bringing the ball up court…really effective in (nearly) all phases of the game (defense, rebounding, steals, scoring)…it’s just that 3-pt shooting he needs to show improvement in…rolled his ankle…thankfully returned in the second half…13-15 PPG player…I’ll be shocked if he’s in a Michigan uniform next season
23 Brandon Johns Jr. (Jr.)
nicely attacked the basket…improved greatly over the course of last season…can even play a little center…really active on the offensive glass…looked much more confident with the ball in his hands this year…but then sort of disappeared in the second half…very nice looking FT…beautiful pass to a cutting Livers for a nice hoop…not center height…but gets up so high for rebounds…8 PPG, 5 rebounds/game…really nice backdown 10-footer in the second half…got fouled and hit his FT…I’m really high on Johns but he can’t disappear for such long stretches if he’s going to live up to my expectations
24 C.J. Baird (Sr.)
DNPCE…apparently got a 12th year of eligibility
25 Jace Howard (Fr.)
DNPCE…will be an interesting night at the dinner table with dad/coach now 🙂
32 Luke Wilson (Sr.)
DNPCE
44 Jaron Faulds (Sr.)
DNPCE
51 Austin Davis (Graduate Student)
started…first career start(!)…took the opening tip…not going to win a lot of tips…one of three players who improved greatly last season…became a serviceable, sneaky good center…will be a challenge to maintain that level as the starter…not gifted athletically…but maximizes what he has…nice FT stroke…has the dependability you would hope for from a 5th year senior…might average more rebounds than points per game…which isn’t bad, the team could use a solid rebounder at center…tough to move around the basket…wish he was 2 inches taller or longer…or could jump
55 Eli Brooks (Sr.)
started…another player who really improved last year…disappeared a little bit in the first half…but will have some games where he flares up for 20 points (mostly 3s)…not afraid to shoot the ball…doesn’t dribble into traffic and lose the ball as much as he used to…that used to be good for 2 turnovers a game…much more aggressive in the second half…might share backup PG duties with Zeb…looks really confident…finished well around the rim…pretty crafty around the rim…can get sneaky layups off…reminds me of Simpson in that way
Miscellaneous Team Notes
looks like a strong FT shooting team…and might get to the line more consistently…could have some trouble protecting the rim…especially when Davis is at the 5…Bowling Green was a solid opponent for a first game…lots of blocks for this team…a lot of FTs at both ends…active defensively…streaky 3-pt shooting team…a lot of capable 3-pt shooters though…more than in recent history…hopefully able to limit the number of 2-19 games from 3…Brooks, Livers, and Brown can all get hot from downtown…looks like this team has a lot of flexibility in the 2-4 positions…was actually pretty encouraged by this game…the team feels like it has a strong veteran core between Livers, Wagner, Davis, Brooks, Brown, and Johns….tons of senior leadership between Livers, Davis, Brooks, Brown, and Smith…this bodes well for this team in this COVID-affected season…will be able to handle COVID adjustments to the schedule (or individuals having to sit out) better than some younger teams…Davis and Dickinson are very different centers…can either guard Iowa’s Garza?…not too sure about that…very balanced offensively…lots of options when you need to find a hot hand…putting up close to 100 points against Bowling Green is pretty impressive…but offenses may overwhelm defenses this year just like they did in football given the reduced practice time…Big Ten looks pretty tough this year…brutal final stretch of the schedule consisting of MSU, Illinois, at Wisconson, Rutgers, at OSU, at IU, Iowa, at MSU…need to pile up wins earlier in the Big Ten schedule…nice to see two solid transfers in (Brown, Smith) after so many recent transfers out…this team can weather foul trouble at the 2-4 positions…not as much at PG or center though
Facility and Coaching Notes
so much sideline space with the bleachers put away…which is good considering so many people on the sidelines need to social distance themselves…nice to see Martelli on the sideline for a second year…didn’t expect that
Most important questions for the season
1) Tougher to replace – Simpson or Teske?
Teske was a really good player, occasionally even a great player, but he struggled in the second half of last season. Simpson also had some struggles, but typically he brought a unique toughness and leadership role that you don’t often see. He set the tone game in and game out, and was the emotional leader of the team as well. There have not been many players at Michigan who could will the team to success like he seemed to, and nobody ever improved more over the course of his career than Simpson (skyhook anyone?). In my opinion Simpson is more difficult to replace, but that doesn’t diminish Teske’s effectiveness.
2) But who is this team better equipped to replace – Simpson or Teske?
I believe Teske will be tougher to replace for this team. Mike Smith looks like a very capable PG, and likely a much better outside shooter than Simpson (who did improve there though). Smith is pesky on defense and able to get the ball to the hoop pretty well for a smaller PG. His FT is solid, overall he will fill Simpson’s shoes pretty well even if he doesn’t bring some of Simpson’s off-the-charts intangibles. The roster replacing Teske — mostly Davis and Dickinson — just doesn’t have the same skills as Teske (yet). Teske was great at protecting the rim, Davis will never get to that level given his physical limitations. Dickinson might, but not sure about this season. Teske could also spread the floor on offense, and neither Davis nor Dickinson can do that. I didn’t always love Teske’s 3-pt shots — he was streaky at best — but at least the threat was there. I don’t think Davis or Dickinson will spread the floor as well on offense, although Dickinson appears to be willing to take threes.
3) Biggest wildcard player for the season?
We know what to expect out of guys like Livers and Wagner. Davis and Brooks will be consistently good players. Smith looks very solid. Chaundee Brown Jr. may be a good choice here, but I’m going with Brandon Johns. When he was really good last year it changed the complexion of the team. He can hit threes, grab tough rebounds (especially at the offensive end), bring energy, and finally appears to have the confidence of a very good player. He has the ability to elevate this team to the next level more than any other player on the roster. If Wagner starts hitting threes he can also elevate this team to another level (again, skeptical).
4) Best five Michigan can put on the floor?
This answer will have you nice and confused by the end. Clearly Wagner and Livers are in the best lineup, and Smith has to be the PG. That leaves center, where it would be Davis for now (but Dickinson could be the choice later in the season) and one other player out of Brown, Brooks, and Johns. While I think Brown and Brooks are solid, with both occasionally going off, I think Johns fills that fifth spot by affecting both ends of the floor more than the other two. The only issue is who plays 2 in a lineup of Smith, Livers, Wagner, Johns, and Davis? Maybe the answer is a small-ball lineup of Smith, Brooks, Livers, Wagner, Johns as the best lineup. I’ll say this though, if Brown hits threes like he did in the second half today then my answer may be forced to change (Brown over Johns). Quite honestly the best player out of Brown, Brooks, and Johns might change on a game-by-game basis, all are capable of going off offensively with Johns the higher rebounding potential. Ultimately I think Johns is a great weapon to bring in off the bench though, so I’m happy with Brown and Brooks being in the starting five.
5) What is the identify of this team?
Simpson was the identity of this team the past few years. Without an alpha dog like him now, I think the identity of this team is the flexibility in both terms of lineups and who will lead the team in scoring on a game-by-game basis. Livers, Wagner, Brown, Brooks, and even Johns and Smith might lead the team in multiple games this year. All kinds of lineups are possible if you want to go small-ball with Johns at center. I think minutes may be distributed by who has the hot hand some games as opposed to minutes just going to the same guys consistently.
Predictions
I’m higher on this team after watching them, but I have a hard time finding wins down the stretch of the Big Ten schedule. I think the team will outperform my predictions here (take the over), but I’m staying conservative.
20-11 overall (less games than normal due to COVID)
5-0 in non-conference
11-9 in the Big Ten (plus 2 wins in the Big Ten tourney)
7 seed in the NCAA Tournament (with 2 tourney wins)