2023-2024 Annual Abla Report

25th Annual Abla Report
The 2023-2024 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after the exhibition game against Northwood on 11/3/2023.
By Tim Abla

0 Dug McDaniel (So.)
started…shot looked improved in warmups…and in the game…hit three 3s at least…so quick…a pest on defense…but can have a hard time against bigger guards…hurt his ankle after breaking someone else’s ankle for a layup…left gingerly…came back in a few minutes later…looked ok but keep an eye on the ankle…will get the majority of PG minutes of course…solid 9-11 ppg player…pretty effective at getting to the rim…but still gets his shot blocked somewhat often…fun player to watch no doubt about it

2 Tray Jackson (Grad student)
lefty…in the first group off the bench…long…a little skinny…long strides with the ball…long arms…covers a lot of ground…makes him really effective on fast breaks…really like his pesky defense…nice outside shot…started the second half in place of Reed…multiple times caught the ball around the FT line and got to the rim without a dribble…that is stride and length…good weapon on the corner 3…absolutely posterized someone on an alley-oop…comes across as a really smart player…10 ppg player…how will the thinner build handle the Big Ten…really good addition from the transfer portal…may get starter minutes off the bench

3 Jaelin Llewellyn (Grad student)
DNP (did not play)… Not sure why…maybe still recovering from knee injury…not even sure if he was on the bench…I think he was but it was hard to tell…was hoping to get a good look to see if he could contribute this year…had such a tough start last year

4 Nimari Burnett (Grad student)
started…better outside shot than I expected…hit at least three 3s.. played PG when Dug was out (instead of Washington)…tough defender…had a fair amount of assists…played a solid game but didn’t stand out…nothing flashy, just business…8 ppg player

5 Terrance Williams II (sr.)
started…more active this game than all of last year…was obvious from the first game last year something wasn’t quite right…hopefully back to the energy of previous years…won’t be the X factor I thought he would be in previous years…probably fourth or fifth in touches of the starters…solid contributor…but in other ways than scoring…can get up for some tough rebounds…hope he somehow rekindles the energy of his first two years with the experience of a senior…decent shot…decent FT but missed his first of the season…big strong body…7 ppg player

13 Olivier Nkamhoua (Grad student)
started…nice outside shot for a big man…long…a little bigger than Jackson…really athletic…but not thick…beefier guys might be able to body him but recovers well if pushed around…good leaper…can dunk from a long way away…significant upgrade for this team…not sure we’ve had anyone like him in a long time if ever…great portal pickup…has good chemistry with Jackson…got burned on a sweet drive and spin yet still recovered to easily block the shot…effective at both ends of the floor…might be the top scorer this year…13-15 ppg player…probably better at the 4 than 5…but plays well with both Reed and Jackson (one or the other)…has fun out there…more vocal than Reed…length causes trouble defensively…can block shots but not quite the rim defender Reed is…has a nice 3pt shot so not just an inside player

14 Ian Burns (Jr.)
got in with 5 minutes left…won’t be in the rotation

24 Youssef Khayat (Fr.)
unfortunately did not play…injured?… really wanted to see him…still looks skinny…great energy with the rest of the players though…will he crack the rotation…looks long

25 Jace Howard (Jr.)
DNP (injury)…out for 4-6 weeks I believe

31 Harrison Hochberg (Fr.)
got in with a few minutes left…won’t be in the rotation

32 Tarris Reed, Jr. (So.)
started…biggest guy on the team…active offensively and defensively…lots of tough rebounds…protected the rim well…FT may not be great but is certainly improved over last year…really disruptive defensively…rim protection and rebounding definitely takes a hit when he’s out…built for the (traditional) Big Ten…don’t think he played the entire second half for some reason…didn’t appear to injure himself…played well and hustled so it wasn’t an effort thing…may have just been resting him for some reason…comes across as a quiet leader…no frills just hard worker…hard to move around the rim…good at tip ins…11 ppg player…more if he hits his FTs…best when close to the rim…will probably be the team’s best rebounder

34 Jackson Selvala (Grad student)
quite the wicked mustache…not sure it’s the good kind of wicked unfortunately…got in with just under 7 minutes left.. moved his feet well for a really nice block…won’t be a major contributor

40 George Washington III (Fr.)
in the first group off the bench…good aggressiveness for a freshman…really tough fast break basket that should have been an and one…good hands defensively…looked really comfortable for a true freshman in his first game…shot looks good…doesn’t lack in confidence…size isn’t bad…much bigger than Dug and Frankie Collins…decent athleticism but not off the charts…will be a solid contributor…didn’t see him play PG much…it was either Dug or Burnett mostly

42 Will Tschetter (Redshirt So.)
in the first group off the bench…probably the least athletic of the rotation…but has good size and strength…played more in the post this year…mildly effective…might have a tougher time against bigger more athletic opponents…still took a couple of threes…made one…tries his hardest, no doubt about that…just doesn’t have the ups or athleticism…broad shoulders…pretty strong…a load to play against…not afraid to bang around in there…decent passer…gives maximum effort but may be the biggest candidate to lose minutes if Khayat or Howard make their way into the rotation

45 Cooper Smith (Jr.)
some pretty awesome dribbling skills during warm-ups with one ball going in each hand…got in with just under 7 minutes left…excellent ball handler…has it on a string…doesn’t lack in confidence…didn’t make any shots though…won’t be a major contributor

Miscellaneous Team Notes
Juwan was out, still recovering from heart surgery…Phil Martelli was head coach in his place…pretty solid backup when you need one…Martelli stayed with the top 8 until late even when up 50…not sure what that means about the next guys up…although the likely next three were all out tonight (Howard, Khayat, and Llewellyn)…so much better defensively this year…likely rebounding too…no stars other than maybe Nkamhoua…he and Jackson felt like different types of players than Michigan has had of late…while the team may not have the stars, it feels like the floor for this team is high…in almost every game I’ve reviewed, against an overmatched opponent mind you, the team has had massive defensive lapses…not this one, and it was their first time playing together…while it may not be a top 10 team it feels like an interesting, fun team that is not devoid of talent

Most important questions for the season

1) Strength of this team?
Woo-boy this team is going to be miles improved defensively over last year’s team.  All five starters were a pest on defense, tipping passes, moving their feet, blocking shots, and getting tough rebounds.  They all put in the work to make life really tough for the offense. It feels like the passing lanes are quite narrow with them out there.  Sure Dug can be exploited a little bit given his size, but he still can hound his opponent into turnovers.  Everybody, and I mean everybody, worked hard on defense, which made this fun to watch. I’m just going to say it — if the defensive effort remains high (and I think it will) this team will be much more fun to watch than last year’s rather frustrating team.

2) Second biggest strength of this team?
Experience.  Feels like the team is a mix of old guys and sophomores for the most part. With Nkamhoua, Jackson, Burnett, Williams, and perhaps Llewellyn, that’s a lot of experience on the court.  And the sophomores all got a lot of experience last year, so they’re pretty much veterans at this point too.  That’s a pretty experienced team.  The main rotation has to be one of the oldest Michigan has had in quite a while.  In college basketball that’s really valuable when the older guys are talented, are leaders, and play with effort.  Now, many of these guys are playing together for the first time, but after a few weeks of meshing I believe the experience is going to prove to be extremely valuable.

3) Biggest weakness?
At first I thought it might be a weakness that there are no first round draft picks on this team (maybe Nkamhoua could slide in?), and no Hunter Dickinson who is a really solid college player (but seemed to regress a little last year).  But this team feels really balanced at both ends of the floor, a bunch of solid players that give effort and have “enough” talent.  So while the so-called top end talent may not be there, I don’t know that I consider this a weakness anymore.  So what would the weakness be?  Maybe 3pt shooting?  Jackson looked good, so did Burnett and Dug, but I want to see it against tougher competition before I fully believe.  I didn’t see enough FTs to determine if shooting in general is going to be a question mark or not.  Like I said above, nothing screamed “major weakness” tonight.  If I had to pick something though, I’d say outside shooting.  Ask me again after a few games against tougher competition though.

4) Down late, who gets the last shot?
You have options here.  That’s good (can’t key on one guy) and bad (no obvious guy who has to get the shot).  At the ends of games I want Nkamhoua, Jackson, Reed, Burnett, and Dug on the floor.  I’d say put the ball in Dug’s hands, put Jackson and Burnett in the corners, and have all four ready for a dish, preferably to Nkamhoua or Jackson.   Reed felt really strong near the rim but I’m afraid of him just getting fouled.  If FTs remain a struggle for him you could replace him with Williams in that situation (but everybody shifts positionally then).  All five guys are options at the ends of games, for better or worse.

5) What’s the rotation come Big Ten season?
I personally feel it’s going to be the five starters (Nkamhoua, Burnett, Dug, Reed, and Williams) and Jackson, Washington, and Khayat off the bench.  While Jackson is coming off the bench I think he’ll get starter minutes.  He, Nkamhoua, and Reed will split the 4 and 5 minutes.  I think Tschetter loses minutes from what he got tonight, but he and Howard get a few each game (barely on the fringe of the rotation but not really in the rotation).  So the top 8 consistently, with those two getting something.  Tschetter needs to start hitting more shots to get more PT.

Predictions
19-12 regular season
8-3 in non-conference
11-9 in the Big Ten (plus 2 wins in the Big Ten tourney)
8 seed in the NCAA Tournament (with 1 tourney wins)
22-14 overall