14th Annual Abla Report
The 2012-2013 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after exhibition game against Northern Michigan on November 1, 2012.
By Tim Abla
1 Glenn Robinson III (Fr.)
least aggressive of the new guys…hit a couple of threes early…had a nice breakaway dunk followed by a nice alley-oop from Hardaway…decent defensively but nothing special yet…nice outside shot…can hit the three much like all of the freshmen but McGary…can get tough rebounds…but needs to be more consistent rebounder…just seemed a little timid tonight…will no doubt become more aggressive with experience…explosive leaper…seemed like a quiet guy…saw him drifting off into space during a late timeout…hopefully just an exhibition game issue…definitely a different body style than his dad…eventually I think he’ll get to the line a lot but didn’t tonight…nice rotation on his shot…perhaps a 7-9 ppg player this year…I didn’t notice him as much as other players…started…brought the ball upcourt a few times tonight, but nothing PG about him
2 Spike Albrecht (Fr.)
the freshman who exceeded my expectations the most…wasn’t expecting much, but was pleasantly surprised…listed as 6’0″ in the free program but I think they said 5’11” when they announced him…started in place of Burke…hit a lot of threes, including one to start each half I believe…surprising aggressiveness…expected him to just get the ball past half-court and then disappear…actually ran the offense…very good cross-court passer…looking for the pass almost before he catches the ball…yet drove the lane reasonably effectively quite a few times…not necessarily to shoot, but to dish to someone for an open look…had it knocked away on the drive a couple of times but was overall pretty effective…even shot in the lane a couple of times…not bad size for a smaller guy…certainly not bulky though…kept his head on a swivel on defense pretty well watching out for screens…a little bit of an odd hitch sometimes in his shot…shot extremely well though from three…quality FT shooter…not afraid to pass with either hand…put some decent pressure on the defense, by no means afraid to be out there…clearly the #2 PG behind Burke…wide elbows when shooting…would have bet lots of money he wouldn’t have ended up with the kind of points he did…always had his head up when bringing the ball upcourt…not always the case for smaller freshmen PGs in their first game…even got a couple of sneaky rebounds in the paint…not afraid to dive for the loose ball…heard some good skin sliding across the floor on one dive…clearly a floor leader, knows how to run a team…big question is how he’ll do against Big Ten caliber/size PGs…I think a key will be giving him minutes when the opponent’s backup PG is on the floor…won’t get many minutes come Big Ten season unless Burke is in foul trouble…but will have a surprising amount of points-per-minute given recruiting expectations…splits the Zach Novak Memorial Hustle Award with Vogrich…real name is Michael
3 Trey Burke (So.)
DNP – one game suspension…clearly the key to this team…not sure how he can exceed last season…not much I’ll say about Burke here since he didn’t play and the focus of this is supposed to be on the guys who played…I will make this bold claim — his body control and the way he moves remind me a bit of one Allen Iverson…maybe a poor man’s AI, but hopefully less wacko too…people might forget AI was only 6’0″ as well…both have great body control in the lane, able to contort their bodies to get off shots amongst the bigs…normally the starting PG of course…may get to rest a little more this year with an actual backup PG on the roster…on the one hand could approach 18 ppg player, on the other hand I think there are more scorers this year so might not have to carry the team as much offensively as before
4 Mitch McGary (Fr.)
wow…probably the most interesting freshman…big broad shoulders…covers a ton of ground in a short amount of time when running back on defense or on a fast break…lefty…first guy off the bench…caught his rebounds high and kept them high…definitely has a Big Ten body…had a pretty strong block…long arms…active defensively…really worked hard to get position on the defensive end…more of a center than I thought he would be…will have to see how the positioning shakes out when Horford returns…really tough to defend on the fast break…many times will beat his big man down the floor…probably not a super high scorer this year…but good rebounding numbers…and probably decent block numbers…has all the potential though…probably the only guy who defines his own ceiling…everyone else has physical or skillset limitations…not McGary — it’s up to him how far he goes…gets to a lot of loose balls inside…read some rebounds really well — a lot quicker adjusting to how the ball came off the rim than other bigs…high-fives everyone and I mean everyone…seems like a really fun teammate to have…excitable…works hard for a big guy…lots of energy, but will need plenty of breaks because of effort he gives…showed no signs of a lingering foot injury…7-8 ppg player this year…almost as many rebounds per-game if he gets decent minutes…decent touch near the basket…at least four of his FTs drifted left and bounced off the rim…showed nice touch, just needs to correct that drifting and he could be an ok FT shooter…expect some tough times at the line for now though…pretty good passer for a big man…especially the outlet passes…reminds me of another #4 from a while back…same big body as C-Webb, pretty athletic but not nearly as explosive, good passer like C-Webb, not as good of an offensive game though…only guy on the team who can look like a man among boys at times…has fun playing the game…willing and able to use his right hand on rebound/tip-ins
5 Eso Akunne (Sr.)
fourth-string PG once Burke returns…won’t get much PT this year now that there are other actual PGs on the roster…although he shot well last year, that’s still a good thing for the team…will get occasional minutes when hustle isn’t there by the team or Beilein wants to send a message…other than that, it’s mostly the bench for him until late in blowouts…still should consider playing fullback for Hoke
10 Tim Hardaway, Jr. (Jr.)
definitely a major wildcard this year…made a lot of really nice passes tonight…seems to be too stationary on a lot of possessions…it seems so obvious — bad things happen when he is just planted in one spot and gets the ball, good things happen if he’s driving with the ball…I’m pretty sure every time he drove he either drew a foul or scored and drew a foul…night and day when he’s agressive and driving the lane versus standing around…I just don’t think he’s a great 3-pt shooter…got some tough rebounds tonight…I’m convinced he could be a strong rebounder if he always showed tonight’s effort when rebounding…I’m not convinced he’ll ever be a great defender though…seems like he should be (good athlete, lots of length) but for whatever reason just isn’t…looked more like a guy generating shots for others tonight than trying to get his own shot…continued his tradition of missing his first FT of the game…broke tradition after that by missing his second FT…very good FT shooter who occasionally misses both FTs for some reason…once he gets in a FT rhythm though he drains them all…the more he gets to the line, the much better this team will be…with more scorers on the team, I think his points will be around 13 ppg…with a higher 3-pt percentage it could be more like 15ppg, but I don’t think it will be there this year…has a really good yell at the end of the team’s intro video…kind of have to see it to believe it…excitable as well…starter, of course…wore sleeves on both legs…has a little bit of Denard in him I guess — lost his shoe for an entire possession and still made a nice pass while shoeless
11 Nik Stauskas (Fr.)
going to score a pretty good amount of points for a freshman…strong 3-pt shooter…has a bit of a sideways rotation on his shot though…you’ll be seeing him using the Beilein ball pretty soon in warmups…hit a really high percentage of threes in warmups…and then continued hot hand in the game…started…not just a 3-pt shooter though…can definitely drive and dish…and sometimes get his own shot when driving…wore sleeves on both legs…puts a lot of rotation on the ball, just needs to straighten that rotation out a little…strong FT shooter…will get to the line a decent amount…good size…not the greatest athlete ever but not bad either…didn’t notice him much defensively or as a rebounder…might have had a shot or two blocked in the lane…likes to shoot near the corners…had a couple of fancy passes…not sure if that’s always a good thing or not…8-10ppg player…lots of talk about him being capable of backup PG but I think he’s way down the list of PGs on this team…would like to see a little more lift on his outside shots…tall enough that he probably won’t have his shot blocked very often outside the arc, but it might happen occasionally…in my opinion the Smotrycz replacement…might have had a black eye (left one I think)
13 Matt Vogrich (Sr.)
difficult to predict this year…started today…not sure how he’ll fit into the rotation as the season progresses…very well might earn minutes because he gets a lot of sneaky rebounds, plays ok defense, and just generally shows a lot of hustle…clearly has a great shot in warmups…just isn’t translating to games though…unable to create much of a shot for himself…pretty much only a shooter if he’s open at the 3-pt line…splits the Zach Novak Memorial Hustle Award with Albrecht…could potentially lose minutes if the freshmen really step it up…will always be a security blanket for Beilein if things aren’t going right for the freshmen…I think he’ll get consistent minutes per game, just not a ton of minutes…will have a few games where he is lights out…but mostly won’t be much of an offensive presence…5-6 ppg player…gets some rebounds he really shouldn’t get…that is his best quality in my opinion
15 Jon Horford (Redshirt So.)
DNP – minor injury…color me a skeptic still…people seem to have a lot of confidence in him, I’ll not quite as high on him…I believe he can be another big body who can rebound and perhaps be our best shot-blocker…it’s him or McGary in that regard…I don’t see him as nearly as athletic as others seem to be making him out to be…nor do I see him with as much offensive upside or touch as others say there is…definitely a big body who can be very valuable to the team, I just don’t see him offering much offensively…would have liked to have seen him tonight since he missed last year…tough to predict when he hasn’t played for a year…rebounds per game may exceed ppg…will be good to have him as part of the rotation just to help keep the bigs fresh and help out against bigger Big Ten bodies defensively…last I saw, I don’t think he had much touch around the basket at all
20 Josh Bartelstein (Sr.)
mop-up duty only
22 Blake McLimans (Sr.)
really athletic and long…clear he won’t get many minutes though…the facial hair just isn’t working for me…very quick for a big guy…really good shot blocker…just doesn’t earn many minutes…still plays outside…likes the 3-pt shot more than being in the paint…clearly behind Morgan, McGary, and Horford, but also I believe he’s behind Beilfeldt as well…in some respects he seems like a prototypical big man for Beilein, yet will be getting very few minutes…seems to get minutes at odd times…kind of a change-of-pace guy here and there, nothing consistent
23 Caris LeVert (Fr.)
as are most of the freshmen, an interesting player…very skinny and long…all legs…doubt he’ll ever be anything but skinny…in my opinion the clear third-string PG…in other words, handled the PG duties tonight when Albrecht was out…and didn’t do too bad…extremely aggressive with the ball…broke a few ankles on a wicked crossover…covers a ton of ground on the crossover move with those long legs…a lot quicker than I expected him to be…really wanted to drive the lane…shot the three well as well…much less rotation on the ball than, say, Stauskas…much straighter rotation on his shot though…shoots the ball a little too low in front of his face…may get his shot blocked occasionally because of that…wouldn’t surprise me if you see that slowly change throughout his career…didn’t notice him much defensively or rebounding…I don’t think he’ll get as many minutes as the other freshmen…definitely a future good player for Michigan though…more athletic than I thought he would be…impressive stride length…just too many guys similar to him to get a ton of minutes this year (Hardaway, GRIII)…perhaps body type in the Big Ten season may effect PT as well…will definitely be a part of the rotation though
32 Corey Person (roster lists him as “GS”, which I’m guessing means he’s somehow a grad student with eligibility left)
mop-up duty only
44 Max Bielfeldt (Redshirt Fr.)
probably the fourth big man behind Morgan, McGary, and Horford…sometimes McLimans may be fourth big, sometimes Bielfeldt…still has the thickest calves on the team…built a little bit like Morgan…broad shoulders, but not as broad as McGary’s…not much of a leaper at all…good rebounder despite that…would really be a good rebounder if he could jump…Big Ten body…but is he athletic enough?…gets those elbows out really wide when shooting…not a bad-looking shot though…will get a few minutes a game…which is fine as a redshirt freshman…may not get any minutes in games where the first three bigs are going well…just not a great athlete, but a valuable guy to have on your roster…I bet he forces our other bigs to work hard to rebound during practice…which can only be a good thing come game-time…not going to score much at all…decent-looking FT
52 Jordan Morgan (Redshirt Jr.)
one of my favorites since he started playing at Michigan…same old Morgan — incredible hustle for a big man…game hasn’t changed much…most of his points result form hustle, not from him creating shots for himself…such a hard worker…good on the fast break…still seems like he is taking on guys bigger than himself…will see if that changes when Horford is back as part of the rotation…could really use a tiny bit more vertical leap…could be a little rough at the line…really fights for more rebounds than he actually gets…fights to get in good position for rebounds, just isn’t tall enough or enough of a leaper to get them sometimes…really strong…starter…seems to have improved greatly from his freshman year at staying out of foul trouble…hustles so much on the defensive end…does the dirty work on the offensive end getting loose balls in the paint…pretty good offensive rebounder
Miscellaneous Team Notes
man, this is an interesting team…so much more length than Michigan has had in a long time…certainly since Beilein has been here…at first glance it seems like it’s not a Beilein type of team because it may have more of an inside presence…but rest assured, this team is going to take a lot of 3-pt shots…and perhaps hit a higher percentage than recent years…first five scoring plays of the game were three points each (4 3’s and a bucket plus FT)…started the game on a 17-0 run…Hardaway may be the worst of the frequent 3-pt shooters…maybe one of the better FT shooting teams we’ve had in a while as well…to keep the positive stuff going, probably will be the best rebounding team Beilein has had here…still not sold on the interior defense though…the defense in general will be interesting…will Beilein go back to the 1-3-1 with all this length?…seems like it could be pretty effective…depends on how well that defense works with so many freshmen though…way more big men than in the past…but I still think this team will take an enormous amount of 3-pt shots…actually might have more blocks than any team in a while as well…mostly from Horford and McGary…even the alley-oop might be back, between Hardaway, GRIII, and perhaps occasionally LeVert?…still an incredibly young team…that looked extremely good tonight and didn’t even have Burke on the floor…often these exhibition opponents are tiny, but Northern had a pretty decent big man and decent height…clearly NM was overmatched though…really deep rotation…11 players could regularly see PT…although that will probably be whittled down by Big Ten season…meaning Beilfeldt and perhaps LeVert lose out a little bit…#5 ranking is too high to start the season…but with a not-too-difficult non-conference schedule there will only be a couple of games that give any indication before the Big Ten season starts…which is probably what this team needs — time to gel and get used to the college game…good that some of the big non-conference games are at home (NC State, Arkansas, Binghamton)…just kidding on that last one…didn’t know anyone would still be reading this still…first to reply with a Binghamton joke wins…should be a pretty good fast break team…this team has all the pieces to compete with most teams if everyone can stay healthy…will probably throw up a couple of stinker games on the road in the Big Ten because of youth…and no Novak/Douglass to ride on…this team feels pretty tight despite bringing in five new freshmen to the mix…Beilein actually called a timeout with 3:40 left in the first half — he never calls timeouts with more than a minute left in the first half
Facility Notes
man, the place looks incredible after all of the improvements over the last two years…the outside will always be a bit ugly, but the inside is fantastic at this point…even the concourse is extremely nice now…which is saying something given how dark and ugly it was before…they really did an amazing job with Crisler…I actually love the inside of Crisler now, after really disliking it for so many years…not crazy about my new seat though…you guys should have ponied up so I could get a better seat…I’m in the fourth row, but in the end zone so-to-speak for the first time in, well, maybe ever…some plays here and there are blocked by the basket support…pretty good seat still, just not my preference…at least I’m near the Michigan bench finally…first time since I was a student, I think…oh, the new entrance is pretty cool…love the waterfall thing…looks like they’re really fancying up the concession stands…permanent names and stuff…bringing in new types of food I’m guessing as well…love the words built into the floor…I took a lot of pics, maybe I’ll share them at some point…don’t like the sound where my seat is though…hard to hear the announcer sometimes…but the music comes through way-too-loud and clear at times…all-in-all Crisler is finally a great place to watch a game…much better when it is crowded though (which it isn’t during exhibition games)…the new banners are nice I guess
Most important questions for the season
1) What does the loss of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass mean for this team?
What does the loss of Zach Novak and Stu Douglass mean for this team? No doubt the most pressing question of the season. Losing Stu Douglass is mildly difficult for two reasons — he was unphasedin pressure situations, and most importantly he was Michigan’s best on-the-ball defender. I think that’s where we miss him most, on defense. Who shuts guys down now? I don’t think Burke can be expected toand I know Hardaway can’t, so it has to be a freshman? It’s not going to be Spike Albrecht, so that leaves GRIII as the hopeful? I didn’t see it from him tonight. As far as losing Novak goes, he is the most difficult loss to quantify since I’ve beendoing this. I’ve never seen more of a heart-of-the-team guy than him, someone whose loss costs you way more than points/assists/rebounds type stats. He got loose balls that saved games, defended guys nobody else on the team could defend, hit key 3’s, had a high FT percentage, and just plain led this team. He was a guy you had to have on the floor even if he wasn’t producing ‘stats.’ Losing him is not going to be a good thing for quite a while. Eventually more-talented players may make up for losing Novak, but there are going to be 3-4 games this year where we needed a key hustle play and are going to sorely miss having him around. This one scares me, especially with the extreme youth of this team. This team could use a leader like Novak more than previous teams needed him. It’s the primary reason this shouldn’t be considered a top-5 team right now. The talent is there maybe, is the leadership?
2) How do the freshmen fit with Beilein?
I didn’t think this would be a Beilein team, but man they still shot a ton of 3’s tonight. Probably had as high of a percentage of makes as they did all last year. So maybe it is kind of a Beilein team, just with more length. They’ll do a bit more inside maybe, but the bigs aren’t really skilled inside bigs. They’re still mostly guys who will get points off of rebounds, hustle plays, etc. That’s how it’s been since Beilein’s been here, so in that respect it’s still a Beilein team. McGary may change that, but maybe not much this year. I think this will be a better rebounding team than his other teams, but that’s a good improvement. The most interesting thing will perhaps be the defensive philosophy — getting back to the 1-3-1 or not. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess. Just rest assured, this team will be bombing from three, for better or worse.
3) Which Hardaway is going to show up, freshman TH or sophomore TH?
Well, if you recall, first-half freshman TH wasn’t very good either, nor was sophomore TH. It was second-half freshman TH who was lights out. For a while I didn’t see the good TH tonight, then in the second half he seemed to get more aggressive and great things happened. He’s such a difference-maker when he’s aggressive. Unfortunately I still saw too much of the stationary Hardaway, so my fear is that we’re still going to be pretty frustrated with a high amount of 3-pt shots and a lower percentage. Somehow some way Beilein needs to light that spark that he lit right around Big Ten season of his freshman year. I’m skeptical we’re going to get that consistently though. But man am I hoping I’m wrong.
4) Is this the year Michigan can play with multiple bigs at once?
Last year I thought that would happen, but Horford got hurt and McLimans never played (and Beilfeldt red-shirted). That left Morgan as the main big man, with Evan Smotrycz trying to be a big man at times (unsuccessfully). Michigan’s long failure to have multiple bigs on the floor at once may finally be solved this year, with Morgan, Horford, McGary, and perhaps a few minutes from Max Bielfeldt. I still don’t expect McLimans to affect this other than the occasional game. Assuming the bigs return to good health, I think finally you’ll see two on the floor at once most of the time. I think all three of the main bigs will get time at center, and honestly I think any two of the three could be on the floor at the same time. I think you’ll see a true rotation between Morgan, McGary, and Horford. Maybe not Horford and McGary together as much. Size — what a novelty!
5) What can this team do in a stacked Big Ten?
There are just so many good teams this year. I can’t see this team winning the Big Ten given how young it is, but I wouldn’t have seen last year’s team sharing the title either. I think it ends up in around third place maybe, which hopefully doesn’t seem like a disappointment to people. I don’t think anyone runs away with it, so this team will be hanging around the fringe of the leaders probably but never quite threatening to win it.
6) Who goes pro early after this year?
I’m going out on a limb and saying Burke leaves but Hardaway stays. I think Burke is gone no matter what (barring a major bomb of a year or major injury I guess), but I just don’t see Hardaway having such an impressive year that it makes any sense to leave. Not that that’s stopped people before, but he doesn’t need the money by any means. I’m probably wrong, but I think he plays for Michigan next year.
Predictions
I’m erring on the side of being conservative given heightened expectations:
22-9 overall (not including post-season tournaments)
11-2 in non-conference
11-7 in the Big Ten (plus 2 wins in the Big Ten tourney)
4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, 2 tourney wins