13th Annual Abla Report
The 2011-2012 University of Michigan Men’s Basketball Team Scouting Report
Reviewed after exhibition game against Wayne State on November 4, 2011.
By Tim Abla
0 Zack Novak (Sr.)
one-half of the senior leadership on this team…still has to guard guys much bigger than him…mainly so that Smotrycz doesn’t have to…Gritty McGrittenstein is pretty good at it by now though…probably the most consistent 3-pt shooter on the team, as far as makes per game…although fundamentally one of the ugliest/worst shots on the team…watching his shot, it’s not hard to understand why he has some periodic droughts…lefty…starter (of course)…when it comes down to it, the unquestioned heart and soul of this team…you know him by now — makes the hustle plays, solid rebounder for a short-ish guy playing against bigger guys, takes 5-9 3-ptrs a game…will average 12 ppg…missed his only FT tonight (other one was wiped out by lane violation)…solid FT shooter though
1 Stu Douglass (Sr.)
other half of the senior leadership on this team…starting PG…for now…pretty good ball handler for a guy who came in as a shooter…when on the floor, he’s the obvious coach of the players…I’ve said it before, he’ll be a coach some day…doesn’t look for his shot as much in this role…that said, he’ll have a game or two where he carries the team offensively and tops 20 points…will get his points, and maybe more shots, as Burke takes over the PG duties…as long as he doesn’t lose too many minutes as that happens…I don’t think he will…should average 8-11 ppg…as a PG, not nearly as effective at getting Morgan easy buckets…defenses don’t have to collapse on him…occasionally shows flashes of getting to the hole pretty well…then gets his layup blocked…always settled, never loses his cool on the floor…strong defender, one of the strongest on the team…not afraid to guard other teams’ scorers…frustrating FT shooter, you would expect a higher percentage from a quality shooter…needs to pick that up this year in a big way…look for him to come off the bench in Big Ten play when Burke has established himself as the starting PG…a role (coming off the bench) he’s succeeded in before…pretty decent at bringing the ball up the floor, even against the press
2 Carlton Brundidge (Fr.)
one half of the freshman guard tandem…clearly #2 in that hierarchy…got an ok amount of minutes in the first half…none in the second…no shots during the game…in warmups, made a lot of shots…has a decent-looking shot…very quick release…clearly more of a bruiser than a slasher…which isn’t a bad skillset to have in the Big Ten…showed some quick hands on defense…had a really nice steal and got a nice loose ball on consecutive possessions, I believe…kind of a Vinnie Johnson build — big shoulders…a bit of an awkward gait though…would have liked to have seen him get a drive in (supposedly his forte) but didn’t happen tonight…just kind of hung out in the corner tonight…needs to be a little more aggressive…without becoming one of those over-agressive freshman…will get 10-12 minutes a game…unless the guards are in foul trouble…perhaps more in the Big Ten occasionally…nice rotation on his shot…fundamentally a pretty sound shot…maybe releases a little more in front than some other guys…a 3-6 ppg player this year with the occasional double-digit game…about 1-2 inches taller than Burke
3 Trey Burke (Fr.)
the other half of the freshman guard tandem…will be a major player on this team…first player off the bench…until he becomes the starting PG…handled PG even when on the floor with Douglass…prototypical PG…played really under control even as a freshman in his first game…not as small or thin as I expected…decent size, while only 6’1″ or so…plenty of quickness…hounded a guy beautifully into a 5-second violation near midcourt all by himself…ran the fast break really well except for one charge…which itself was a great play that set up an easy dunk for Morgan (but was wiped-out)…had a gorgeous alley-oop to Hardaway on a fast break while in traffic…has a very nice shot…hit a ton of shots in warmups…took the right amount of shots during the game…some 3-ptrs, some in the lane…gets in the lane pretty well…no doubt will be a leader on this team some day…rises up pretty well on his shot…really nice rotation on his shot…would like to see him get to the line, haven’t seen a FT yet…did a good job of not fouling despite being pretty aggressive defensively…a guy named ‘Trey’ has to wear #3 right?…would expect him to be a starter by Big Ten season…excellent ball handler
5 Eso Akunne (Jr.)
DNP WNP (did not play, will not play)…will only get minutes in garbage time or that one game a year that Beilein wants to send a message to his players…Hoke might want to look at him as a fullback
10 Tim Hardaway, Jr. (So.)
looking to build on a spectacular freshman season…was the team’s best rebounder tonight…at both ends…also its best scorer…when he’s hot, get him the ball…so long…can get his shot off on almost anyone…rises up well on his shot…long arms…helps make him a strong defender…one of the more emotional guys on a reasonably low-key team…will no doubt lead the team in scoring…could easily be a 15+ ppg player…and 6 rebound/game…good near the basket and on the perimeter…very good FT shooter…best leaper on the team…starter, obviously…can create shots for himself…want to see more of that this year…one of the guys who can pick up the slack from Darius Morris’ departure in getting Morgan easy buckets…solid candidate for All-Big-Ten first team…probably the #1 guy you want on the line late in the game…great finisher on the fast break…can bring the ball up the court in a pinch…needs to make sure he’s taking quality shots, not just forcing up shots for shots’ sake…really took off last season when his shot quality went up…needs to always remember that lesson
13 Matt Vogrich (Jr.)
purest shooter on the team…kind of underrated in the scrappy department…poor-man’s Novak in that respect…underrated rebounder as well…still won’t get the minutes he probably wants…such a fundamentally sound shot…nice weapon to have on the bench…decent defender…overall a solid player who just won’t get a ton of minutes…5 ppg player, with a few outbursts from 3 ptrs…can get some rebounds you wouldn’t expect…especially right under the basket with the big boys
15 Jon Horford (So.)
interesting player this year…started tonight in place of Morgan…not sure if that’s the long term plan…kind of doubt he’ll remain the starter…frustrating in that he’ll sometimes pass the ball when he’s 3 feet from the basket…made a few ok moves with his back to the basket, but if he gets the ball facing the basket he looks really uncomfortable and wants to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible…actually backed down some guys a couple of times for some good close attempts…more of that in one game than all of last year…big body…but not a strong enough rebounder…had a few balls taken from him that Morgan surely would have secured…needs to be more aggressive as a rebounder…his points are ‘slow’ points, backing guys down, slow layups…as opposed to Morgan’s ‘fast’ points, getting the ball as he breaks to the basket…not a great leaper…doesn’t help his rebounding…does nothing to wow you…ok defensively…one of the few shot-blockers on the team…slow running the floor…FT looks ok…but he was 0-5 from the line tonight so brace yourself…at least he got to the line a bunch…just needs a healthy dose of aggressiveness at both ends to become a more significant player…solid guy to have on the team though…a good body for stereotypical Big Ten play
20 Josh Bartelstein (Jr.)
DNP/WNP
22 Blake McLimans (Redshirt Jr.)
DNP…will get minutes here and there…especially when the big men are in foul trouble…which is not a rare thing…likes to play on the perimeter more than inside…hoppy, floppy, moppy, and occasionally sloppy…a very ‘oppy’ player…needs to fall a little less in love with his 3-pt shot…ok, a lot less…change of pace guy…not going to get major minutes…quick for a big guy…needs to play under control…any games with 5+ points will be a bonus…2-4 ppg player…given his athleticism would probably be more effective if he played like Morgan, always moving towards the basket looking for the pass…gets the reddest cheeks on the team in no time
23 Evan Smotrycz (So.)
perhaps the key player this year in terms of taking this team up a level…showed some great signs with aggressive play at the end of last season…and none of that tonight…needs to be more aggressive than just sitting outside popping 3 ptrs…shot very poorly tonight…started out like this last year…needs the aggressive switch to click on earlier than last year though…a couple of drives a game will open things up for him and others so much…hopefully the weight gain this offseason doesn’t slow him down…still lacks in the appearance of hustle…will definitely carry this team at times…will be one of the team’s leading scorers…12 ppg player…looked out of whack tonight…needs to improve his rebounding skills…good shot…streaky shooter…probably takes too many threes though…especially when the shot isn’t falling…not much of a conscience in that respect…smiled more in warmups tonight than I saw all of last year…absolutely has talent, needs to play like his tournament run last year to utilize that talent…one of those taller guys who’s way more of a small forward than a power forward…starter…kind of the reason Novak ends up guarding big guys in my opinion…good FT shooter…not a great leaper…another one of those guys who can carry a team in some games…another streaky shooter
32 Corey Person (Sr.)
DNP/WNP
44 Max Bielfeldt (Fr.)
thickest, most tree-trunkish legs I’ve ever seen on a Michigan player…and I was there for Tractor Traylor…doubt he’ll play much this year…got no minutes tonight, so I only saw him in warmups…decent shot, actually…my guess is a less athletic Colton Christian, but with a better shot…which isn’t saying a ton…certainly a good Big Ten guy to have in a year or two…but won’t get much meaningful PT this year…couldn’t get a good gauge on his athelticism (or lack therof) in warmups…such thick legs, I can’t imagine he’s a quick-footed player…hopefully he surprises me…sometimes those thick guys make strong rebounders…hopefully…never hurts to have another big body on your bench
45 Colton Christian (So.)
DNP…was dressed in a suit tonight…not sure if he’s injured or what…if Horford picks up more minutes, shouldn’t expect much PT…good athleticism…strong defender…not much of a shot though…a guy you might put in a game when nobody else can handle an opposing player…defensive specialist…given that he was dressed in a suit tonight, couldn’t evaluate if he had picked up any new offensive skills since last season…another guy you’ll be glad you have on your team about 2-3 times a year…but never will be a guy that carries you offensively
52 Jordan Morgan (Redshirt So.)
also one of the more interesting guys this year…understands the weapon that constant movement on the offensive end can be…makes great cuts to the basket…just needs someone to get him the ball…great pick-and-roll player…but the bad defensive fouls, man…had another cheap-o tonight…needs to eliminate that in a hurry to maximize his potential…would love to see him develop a 12-footer…really good at the basket…averages 2+ dunks a game…powerful ones, too…strong rebounder…when it’s in his grasp, you’re not getting it from him…came off the bench today…not sure why…my theory is that he’s pairing up with Burke more than Douglass, given the pick-and-roll strengths of those two guys…I think Burke will get him more easy buckets than Douglass…such a great Big Ten body…but pretty athletic for his size…really didn’t get that many minutes tonight…not sure if there is any doghouse action at the moment or not…is at his best when he’s aggressive…thankfully he almost always is…most likely guy to foul out…in under 7 minutes…needs to quit trying to steal the ball or bump guys when he’s 40+ feet from his own basket…if he’s going to pick up fouls, make them count…usually pretty good at getting to the line…but didn’t get there tonight in his limited minutes…will take over the starting role pretty soon in my opinion…can be one of the most exciting players on this team
Miscellaneous Team Notes
shot terribly tonight…not worried about that though…more worried about the rebounding lapses…and FT shooting…the team has very good depth finally…can withstand much more foul troubles and games where guys are struggling…not only are there players on the bench, there are guys on the bench who can come in and score…as always, some interesting new warmup drills…the early layup lines had players taking layups with the opposite hand you would expect — left-handed from the right side, right-handed from the left side…interesting though, actually — it’s tough to block a layup taken like that…the ‘regular’ way usually ends up with more of an arching/looping shot that’s much more blockable…a problem this team had last year…that’s just my theory as to why they did that — no idea if that’s truly why or not…also enjoyed a big man drill in warmups where they worked on layups when coming from underneath the basket…effectively using the basket itself to keep blockers away…this team is a streak-shooting team…you know they rely on the 3-ptrs, so there’s going to be some high-scoring days and some frustratingly low-scoring days…like tonight…I like the defense though…the smaller guys are tough on the ball…not as sure of the big guys…won’t get to the line as much without Morris…kind of afraid of the FT shooting a little
Facility Notes
Well, this might be the first year the facility notes are more interesting than the player/team notes! Wow, what a difference a year makes in Crisler! Other than the floor itself, you would never guess this is the same building as last year.
* The high-def scoreboards are amazing considering you’re so close to them but they’re so crystal clear. My guess is they had a glitch in the top-most scoreboards tonight, as they had players’ names and stats there in warmups but not at all the rest of the night. Once they get that working, they will be incredible. The bottom is pretty low though, I wouldn’t be surprised if it blocked a full-court shot before the end of a half some time. The top (where the stats will go) is pretty high up though, so it’s a little slower looking at stats than before. And the people in the first couple of rows won’t be able to read those stats. All-in-all they’re fantastic.
* The seats look great as well, SO much better than the old ones. Interestingly three sections (including mine) have block ‘M’s on the seat back (the three sections along the west side of the court). I’m not sure why only those would have the block ‘M’s, especially since the cameras are facing the east side of the court. My guess is that, since the students are on the east side of the court, the west side will be considered premium seats when they get that going next year. Just a guess though. The seats change the entire appearance of Crisler.
* The sound system is much improved as well. The bass is definitely kicking. The only issue is that the PA announcer was a little difficult to hear on our side at times. Although sometimes I don’t really want to hear that guy (Who’s ready for some piiiiiiiizzzaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?!??!?!?)
* They put in a couple of ‘luxury boxes’ in the concourse between the upper and lower bowls. They’re really nice looking, with wood paneling around the outside. They did a great job on those, despite how simple they are.
* The media has been moved into an upper corner. The wood paneling is all over their area too, so it looks great.
* There are two tunnels now. The old one is used by the visiting team, the new one by Michigan (which leads to the new PDC). I am near the Michigan tunnel.
* The teams (and students) effectively rotate 180 degrees around the court — each team is kitty-corner from where they used to sit. Since my seat is virtually in the same spot as before, I’m now across from the Michigan bench instead of just behind the visiting bench. Although I’m now exactly even with the FT line, where-as I used to be even with the basket. Given that the cameras are on my side now, my right leg will no longer be on TV all the time.
* Each set of steps has hand rails now, and I believe they’re wider, so that’s nice I guess.
* I’m one-for-one in catching free t-shirts so far.
* The band is above the visiting tunnel now.
* If you haven’t seen pictures of the new PDC, make sure you find them online.
All-in-all they’ve done a truly fantastic job of updating Crisler, both where we common folk are and where the Michigan players spend time (great for recruiting). Like I said, you wouldn’t recognize Crisler other than the floor itself.
Most important questions for the season
1) Will Morgan take a step back this year without Darius Morris?
At the beginning, no doubt. As the season wears on, and as Burke (and in some respects Douglass) become more comfortable with him, I think things will get close to last year for him. In the end, though, he won’t be as effective without Morris.
2) How much will the team miss Morris?
A ton, more than people think. As poor as his shot was, he made so many clutch plays, got to the lane and hit a tough bucket so many times when we needed it, got to the line when nothing else was working. He made Jordan Morgan so effective. He was ok defensively, but so clutch offensively. Given how streaky this team can be, there were times last year where nobody could hit anything. The only answer we had was for Morris to drive the lane and get a tough bucket or get to the line. Now who’s doing that? Hardaway? We might not miss Morris all the time, but late in games, or when we’re struggling to get a bucket of any kind, or when the shot clock is running out, that’s when we’re going to miss his game.
3) Is this team a contender for the Big Ten (regular season) championship?
A contender, yes. The favorite, no. That’s still OSU. I feel like the bandwagon is pretty full right now, but question 2 makes me want to temper the enthusiasm a little. This team has one major thing going for it — other teams lost a lot more talented players off their rosters than this team did. They lost one huge piece, but one is still better than 2-4. If by then Burke has assumed a lot of Morris’s role, then this team can definitely contend. I’d bet against it happening though.
4) What is the strength of this team?
Shooters, except when everybody is cold. We do have a lot of good shooters, though, so odds are that someone will be going well in any given game. Hardaway’s talents should be more consistent than Novak/Morris/Smotrycz — he could be considered the strength of this team. Defensively, this team will also be pretty strong in my opinion.
5) What is its biggest weakness?
Rebounding, yet again. Man, there are some frustrating rebounds that go to the other team. This just isn’t a team full of athletic long-armed leapers. Morgan, Hardaway, and Novak are the only guys who could say rebouding is a strength. It would go a long way to have Horford and Smotrycz make some strides in this area.
Predictions
I’m going optimistic this year. Keep in mind that I’m always wrong, though.
22-9 overall
10-3 in non-conference
12-6 in the Big Ten (plus two wins in the Big Ten tourney)
5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, 2 tourney wins